Vincent Deluard, global macro director at StoneX, warns that Treasury yields, oil prices, and the yen carry trade — the strategy of borrowing cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding assets elsewhere — are all reaching a breaking point — and that equities could be next.

In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Deluard argues that markets will hold up through November's US midterms and the IPO of AI developer Anthropic, but that AI capital expenditure cannot keep doubling forever. After November, he plans to turn bearish on stocks while staying bullish on Bitcoin and gold. For digital-asset readers, the discussion matters because it ties sovereign-debt stress and the dollar's long-run trajectory directly to the demand case for hard assets.

The conversation opens with why rising Treasury yields point to long-term dollar debasement — a sustained erosion of the dollar's purchasing power — and whether AI and robotics can grow the United States out of its debt problem. Deluard then weighs Bitcoin against gold as a debasement hedge and explains what daily tax collection data, a near-real-time read on federal revenues, reveals about the state of the US economy.

A central segment examines France's bond market crisis and its debt problem — a stress point with bloc-wide resonance given France's position as the eurozone's second-largest economy — followed by eurozone contagion risk and the case for shorting the euro. Deluard also flags the yen, oil, and Treasury yields as three signals he sees at a breaking point.

On equities, he describes the market as top-heavy, discusses the Anthropic IPO, and lays out the case for a post-midterm sell-off. He argues that the return of quantitative easing — large-scale central-bank bond purchases — would be bullish for Bitcoin and gold, and closes with his outlook for Bitcoin's price over the next two years.

For readers tracking his framework, the checkpoints are the ones Deluard names himself: the paths of Treasury yields, oil, and the yen carry trade through the November midterm window, and how the top-heavy market behaves once the Anthropic IPO is out of the way.

The full interview is available on Bitcoin Magazine: StoneX Global Macro Director: French Bond Market Contagion & BTC Market Outlook | Vincent Deluard

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This article is based on a report by Patrick Green, first published on Bitcoin Magazine.