SpaceX shares fell to a new all-time low near $110 as investors assessed upcoming lockup expirations, the company’s first post-IPO earnings report, and execution milestones for Starship. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target, citing progress in Starship Flight 13 despite a difficult Super Heavy V3 booster splashdown.

Morgan Stanley Cites Starship Flight 13 Progress

Morgan Stanley said Starship Flight 13 strengthened confidence in SpaceX’s development path. The firm assigned the mission an A- grade and said the latest test demonstrated clear improvement from Flight 12.

According to the firm, SpaceX completed several major objectives during the flight. Starship launched cleanly with all 33 Raptor engines firing, completed hot-stage separation, deployed 20 production Starlink V3 satellites, relit a Raptor engine in space, and recorded its softest splashdown to date.

Morgan Stanley said the booster landing would likely remain a point of criticism because only about five of 13 engines fired during the final landing burn. Even so, the firm said the result represented progress from Flight 12, when the booster failed before reaching its landing attempt.

The next major Starship milestone could come with Flight 14. Morgan Stanley said comments from Elon Musk suggested SpaceX may attempt the first tower catch of the Starship upper stage during that mission. The catch attempt is central to investor focus because Starship’s investment case depends heavily on demonstrating repeatable reusability rather than one-off flight-test success.

Lockup Expiration and Earnings Remain in Focus

SpaceX stock recently traded near $111, down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak of $225.64. The decline has left IPO buyers with an estimated 18.5% loss.

Source: CoinCodex

Investors are also focused on SpaceX’s first post-IPO earnings report, scheduled for August 4. Analysts expect revenue of about $6.9 billion and a per-share loss between $0.22 and $0.28. As the first earnings release since the listing, the report will give public-market investors an early baseline for comparing SpaceX’s revenue growth, losses, and capital needs against the valuation implied by analyst targets.

The report may bring additional scrutiny of Starship delays and SpaceX’s move away from some Falcon 9 bookings. The company has reportedly turned away dedicated Falcon 9 customers beyond 2028 as it shifts more attention toward Starship.

A lockup expiration two days after earnings is another concern for investors. Nearly 1 billion pre-IPO shares could become eligible for sale, potentially expanding the public float and adding short-term selling pressure. Lockup expirations do not require insiders or early holders to sell, but they can change trading dynamics by increasing the number of shares that are legally available to trade.

A larger float could also increase SpaceX’s weighting in QQQ-linked exposure even if the stock price does not rise. Investors are weighing that possible index-related effect against the risk of insider selling.

Analysts Maintain Bullish Targets After Flight Milestones

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated that SpaceX remains “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” The firm kept its $300 target despite the stock’s sharp decline and continued concerns about valuation.

Raymond James also maintained a Strong Buy rating and a Street-high $800 price target after Flight 13. The firm said the test reduced execution risk by validating important V3 upgrades.

Raymond James identified the Starlink V3 deployment, the in-space Raptor relight, and the intact splashdown as key achievements. The firm said those results reduced the amount of engineering work still needed before full reusability.

Morgan Stanley said Flight 14 could take place as early as late August or early September. A successful tower catch of the Starship upper stage would represent another major milestone for the program.

The firm also said Flight 15 could attempt to catch both the ship and the V3 booster if Flight 14 succeeds. That sequence would keep attention on Starship’s progress toward reusability and on how quickly flight-test milestones can translate into the operational cadence analysts are using in their long-term views.

Source: https://coinpaper.com/33530/morgan-stanley-forecasts-spacex-spcx-to-hit-300-despite-falling-to-110