SpaceX (SPCX) stock closed at $141.50, up roughly 0.5%, after Elon Musk issued a revenue forecast that drew attention across Wall Street. SpaceX remains privately held, so its shares trade in secondary markets rather than on a public exchange, and Morgan Stanley is one of the few major banks publishing regular research on the company.

Musk's $3.5 Trillion Forecast vs. Morgan Stanley's Timeline

Musk posted on X that SpaceX could reach approximately $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033. Morgan Stanley, which recently updated its SpaceX research note, places that same milestone around 2040 — a seven-year gap between the two projections.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained his Overweight rating on SpaceX and described the company as "attractively valued." The bank's current price target stands at $137 per share, slightly below the stock's trading level.

The arithmetic behind Musk's forecast is demanding. SpaceX posted Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, which puts its annualized run rate at around $31 billion. Reaching $3.5 trillion by 2033 would require revenue to grow roughly 112-fold, equivalent to about 96% compound annual growth every year for seven years. For scale, that target would put SpaceX's annual revenue well beyond that of any publicly traded company today — the largest corporations globally generate annual revenue in the range of several hundred billion dollars.

Connectivity was the largest Q2 revenue driver at $4.29 billion, followed by AI at $2.56 billion and the space business at $962 million.

Capital spending is also running at a high level. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capital expenditures in Q2 alone, illustrating how much cash the company is deploying to build the infrastructure underpinning Musk's targets.

Louisiana Spaceport Adds Capacity

This week, SpaceX announced Starbase Louisiana, a new $100 billion spaceport in South Louisiana. Construction is set to begin in 2027, with the first Starship launch targeted for 2029.

Morgan Stanley expects the site to support polar and sun-synchronous launches, expanding SpaceX's growing launch network. The bank's model assumes SpaceX will eventually operate 15 launch pads, with three more coming by the end of 2027. At two launches per pad per day, that could amount to roughly 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040.

AI and Orbital Computing

SpaceX is also investing heavily in AI infrastructure. The company plans to grow its computing capacity from over 2 GW by the end of 2026 to around 10 GW in 2027.

Morgan Stanley estimates that every additional 1 GW of orbital computing adds roughly $27 per share to SpaceX's valuation — a figure worth monitoring as the company scales this segment.

Musk has also previously said SpaceX could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, with 2029 possible in a faster growth scenario. Morgan Stanley's previous valuation put SpaceX at around $330 billion by 2030, rising to $3.4 trillion by 2040.

SPCX stock closed at $141.50, up around 0.5% over 24 hours, trading above Morgan Stanley's current $137 per share target.