South Korea's Incoming Elementary School Enrollment Expected to Fall Below 300,000 for First Time
Key Takeaways
- •The number of South Korean children entering elementary school is projected to drop below 300,000 in the 2027 academic year.
- •The incoming cohort was born in 2020, when South Korea recorded 272,337 births, down 10 percent from the previous year.
- •This year’s first-grade enrollment totaled 301,442, the lowest level recorded since 1964.
- •The declining school-age population is fueling concerns about rural school closures and increasing regional education disparities.
- •First-grade enrollment is expected to continue falling through 2030, while remaining above 200,000 because births increased in 2024 and 2025.
The number of children entering elementary schools in South Korea is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time next year, data showed Sunday, the latest sign of the demographic pressure exerted by the country's prolonged low birth rate.
The incoming class of first graders — children born in 2020 who are due to begin elementary school in the 2027 academic year — is projected to fall short of the 300,000 mark. That would come just three years after the figure dropped below the 400,000 level, according to data compiled by the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the Korean Educational Development Institute (KEDI).
The anticipated decline traces back to the country's birth statistics for 2020, when only 272,337 babies were born, down 10 percent from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Data and Statistics.
This year, a total of 301,442 students enrolled as elementary school freshmen, barely surpassing the 300,000 threshold and marking the lowest level since 1964, when the ministry began compiling the related data. Enrollment is expected to fall further next year to roughly one-fourth of the 1.05 million first graders recorded in 1968.
The continued contraction of the school-age population has raised concerns over school closures, particularly in rural areas, and a widening education gap between regions.
The number of new first graders is projected to continue shrinking until 2030, though it is expected to remain above 200,000, thanks to a rebound in childbirths. Following years of decline, the number of babies born rose to 238,317 in 2024 and 254,341 in 2025.
Source: The Korea Times
