Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme token tracked by Coinotag’s Shiba Inu hub, moved above its short-term moving averages after daily volume exceeded 2 trillion tokens, although a rejection near the 100-day exponential moving average left the wider trend unresolved. The move came after weeks of tight trading and marked one of the strongest volume expansions seen in months, suggesting that aggressive buyers returned after a prolonged pause.

Price action cleared the 26-day average near $0.00000445 and the 50-day average near $0.00000448 before reaching the 100-day average around $0.00000504. That area quickly formed a long upper wick, indicating that profit-taking remains active whenever the token approaches overhead supply. For an altcoin that has spent much of the year in a weak structure, the key question is not the intraday spike itself, but whether holders can defend the reclaimed moving-average band.

A daily close above the 100-day line would provide the first reliable confirmation that the market is attempting a trend change rather than a short squeeze. It would also show that July’s pattern of lower highs has been broken, not simply interrupted. By contrast, failure to hold the reclaimed band would suggest that the latest burst was mainly driven by short covering. Until then, the pattern still looks like an early recovery within a broader bear market phase.

Near-term support is located at the 26-day and 50-day averages, while the next major ceiling is the declining 200-day average near $0.000006. Momentum indicators are not yet stretched; the 14-day relative strength index rose toward 65, leaving room for another test of resistance if buyers maintain pressure. The market’s task is straightforward: turn a high-volume probe into accepted higher lows.

The rally’s first leg, however, was already losing strength earlier in the session. Market data showed that the token surged 35% over the weekend to a two-month high near $0.00000582, then fell almost 20% to roughly $0.000004631 as sellers regained control. The advance had been supported by signs of renewed large-wallet activity, including a whale that resumed accumulation after more than six months of inactivity and a renewed increase in token burns.

Even so, on-chain data recorded 52 whale transactions in a single day, the highest number since March 31, a pattern that often signals distribution into retail enthusiasm. In practical terms, larger holders appear to have used the jump to reduce exposure, while late buyers provided exit liquidity. This is a familiar all-time-high-chasing trap in meme altcoin markets: attention often arrives after the strongest candle, not before it.

In fast meme rallies, liquidity often concentrates through an automated market maker pool, where sudden swaps can magnify both upside moves and retracements. When the initial impulse fades, thin order flow can leave the chart vulnerable to sharp mean reversion. Additional pressure came from exchange-reserve data, which showed SHIB balances on centralized platforms climbing to a two-week high near 86.7 trillion tokens. Rising exchange balances can indicate preparation for selling, since coins moved out of self-custody are often closer to order books.

The ecosystem’s layer-2 network, Shibarium, has also failed to provide a strong activity catalyst after usage collapsed following an exploit in September of last year, leaving daily transactions measured in hundreds or thousands rather than showing robust network demand. For traders, the combination of profit-taking, reserve buildup, and weak protocol activity means the rebound still needs a cleaner demand signal before it can be treated as durable.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine describes SHIB as sideways after an 8.71% 24-hour decline, with RSI at 53.89 and a neutral MACD. The nearest resistance cluster, tied to Fibo 0.236 and Fibo 0.382, carries a composite score of 51/100, while the strongest support at Fibo 0.000 has a 48/100 composite score. A secondary support blend of Donchian Lower and S3 adds 45/100. Funding at 0.0047% is mildly positive but not frothy, suggesting longs are not overcrowded. Fear and Greed at 29 and BTC dominance at 69.7% still point to caution.

A reclaim of the 51/100 Fibonacci zone would support a relief move. Rejection there, or a loss of the 48/100 support, would invalidate the early recovery thesis.

COINOTAG does not provide financial advisory services. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk.