Bitcoin stayed resilient near $65,000 on Monday even as AI-linked tech stocks sold off sharply, but analysts said this week’s Federal Reserve decision and key U.S. economic releases could determine whether the cryptocurrency breaks out of its recent range or revisits June lows.

BTC was quoted at $63,819.13 and held around $65,000, up 4% from Friday. Ether (ETH) climbed to its highest level in nearly two months. In contrast, Nvidia fell 4.8% and led AI-focused stocks lower, even as the Nasdaq was roughly flat after gains in Apple, Microsoft and Google.

The relative strength in crypto comes as traders look ahead to a packed week that includes the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, core PCE inflation data, second-quarter GDP figures and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Friday will also bring roughly $13 billion to $14 billion in bitcoin and ether options expiries, a reminder that near-term trading can be influenced by both macro data and derivatives positioning.

“The recent resilience of crypto during periods of volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging development,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group. "It supports the argument that digital assets are beginning to decouple, at least at the margin, from conventional risk assets."

Kruger said bitcoin needs to move above about $67,300 to break out of the multi-week consolidation that has held prices down since June. Ether faces a similar test at $2,000. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to ether’s recent outperformance versus bitcoin as a constructive signal for crypto markets. The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures the price of ether in bitcoin, reached a three-month high on Monday.

Not everyone sees the rebound as the start of a broader advance. Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, said the move lacks the buying conviction usually seen before sustained rallies.

“The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout,” Sondergaard said.

His base case remains a decline toward $52,000 to $58,000 unless conditions improve. He said nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, but bitcoin futures open interest fell even as prices rose, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than opening new bullish positions. Order-book data also continues to show net selling pressure, he said.

Sondergaard said the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the accompanying guidance will likely set the tone for risk assets on Wednesday. For Nansen to become more constructive, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, continued spot bitcoin ETF buying and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss.

Until then, Sondergaard said the recent recovery looks more like a positioning bounce than the start of a sustained uptrend.