Google and the UK back airspace trial to cut aviation contrails
Key Takeaways
- •Operation Blue Skies will test contrail reduction across the Shanwick Oceanic Control Area, a major transatlantic flight corridor in the North Atlantic.
- •During winter test periods, some flights may be adjusted by up to 2,000 feet to avoid areas where contrails are expected to form.
- •Roughly 10,000 flights are expected to use the airspace during the trial, and hundreds are likely to be rerouted.
- •Google UK is providing AI-powered forecasts, and the UK government is funding more than half of the £5 million study.
- •Researchers say the trial could help determine whether airspace-wide contrail management can cut aviation’s warming impact more broadly.
Hundreds of commercial flights will be instructed to change course over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean during the next two winters in a trial aimed at showing how small altitude adjustments can reduce aviation’s climate impact.
The British government is backing the landmark airspace-scale test, which was launched on Tuesday, to reduce the formation of condensation trails, or contrails. Google UK is supplying artificial intelligence-powered forecasts to help identify the areas where contrails are likely to form.
When airplanes fly through cold, humid air, ice crystals can form around soot particles emitted by engines, creating clouds that trap heat and warm the planet. The Shanwick Oceanic Control Area, located in the eastern half of the North Atlantic corridor and used heavily by flights between Europe and North America, is the site of the trial and a known hotspot for contrail formation.
The 30-month research program, called Operation Blue Skies, will include test periods this winter and next. During those periods, air traffic controllers will direct some flights to deviate by up to 2,000 feet (610 meters) to avoid regions where contrails are expected to form. According to the British government, the changes will amount to minor altitude adjustments within normal flight operations and will be coordinated through established air traffic control communication channels.
There will be about 20 to 40 test days each winter, when air traffic is lighter. Roughly 10,000 flights are expected to pass through Shanwick airspace during the trial, and hundreds of them will be rerouted. That means about 1% to 5% of flights would change altitude, which Google’s technical lead for Operation Blue Skies, Paul Hodgson, said would be enough to show a statistically significant reduction in contrail formation at an airspace scale.
Airlines have already tested altitude changes to avoid contrail-prone regions. Earlier this year, Google and American Airlines announced that the airline had significantly reduced the climate impact of some flights by using Google’s AI-based forecasting tool to help prevent contrails.
The new effort expands those individual airline trials to test whether contrails can be mitigated across an entire flight corridor, using the same operational air traffic system that handles busy transatlantic traffic every day.
The thin white lines left behind by aircraft are responsible for a surprising share of Earth’s warming, accounting for 1% to 2% of the total, according to Contrails.org, a nonprofit research organization focused on reducing aviation’s climate impact through contrail management and part of the Breakthrough Energy group founded by Bill Gates. Modeling suggests that the Shanwick airspace accounts for about 5% of the total warming contribution from contrails, with a substantial share occurring in winter.
Keir Mather, the UK minister responsible for aviation, said the government is working with Google to support British experts and innovators in finding practical ways to make flying cleaner. The government is funding more than half of the 5 million pound ($6.76 million) study.
Google described contrails as one of the most urgent yet solvable climate challenges facing aviation today.
Hodgson said testing changes across an entire airspace, rather than through individual airline trials, can show how multiple planes can be moved away at the same time from areas where contrails are likely to form, and whether contrails can be reduced overall across a region. He said the effort could provide a blueprint for similar airspaces.
The consortium includes Google, the UK Department for Transport, the Met Office, the UK’s leading air navigation service provider NATS, Contrails.org, Imperial College London and the University of Cambridge.
An Imperial College London study published in 2020 found that small changes to flight paths could reduce the climate impact of contrails. Professor Marc Stettler said Operation Blue Skies offers a chance to test that idea in the real world on a scale never seen before.
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This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
