Nigeria's ability to close its internet gap now hinges on planned fibre expansion, broader 5G deployment and digital identity reforms, according to a September 2026 report from global telecoms industry body GSMA. Together, the three factors are expected to improve connectivity nationwide and strengthen the value proposition of being online.

The study, titled "Advancing Digital Connectivity in Africa: Charting Africa's Path to 1 Billion Connected People by 2030", charts Africa's course toward one billion connected people by the end of the decade. It arrives amid a persistent divide between the share of Nigerians covered by mobile networks and the share who actually use the internet. The report finds that only 3 in every 10 Nigerians are online, with a usage gap of 53% and a coverage gap of 11% as of 2025. Interventions that cut both gaps in half could bring 75 million more Nigerians online.

The usage gap is particularly stark: at 53%, it is nearly five times the size of the 11% coverage gap. While industry data shows that 81% of Nigeria's telecom subscribers — 158 million out of 195 million — are technically online only a small proportion are actively connected. A recent State of Mobile report by GSMA found that about 140 million Nigerians were in the mobile internet usage gap as of 2025, meaning they lived within mobile broadband coverage but did not use mobile internet services.

These shortfalls stand in contrast to the growing maturity of Nigeria's digital ecosystem, which the report attributes to a rising number of internet users and growing demand for high-speed connectivity and quality networks. The expansion of local platforms, fintechs, AI adoption, consumer applications and financial services is reinforcing the perceived value of being connected, making mobile data an essential investment for many users rather than a burdensome expense.

"Platforms such as Jumia and local social commerce businesses operating through WhatsApp Business have integrated retail supply chains, enabling small businesses to source inventory, manage logistics and respond dynamically to customer demand," the report notes.

The GSMA stressed that Nigeria needs coordinated, collaborative and greater support to extend digital opportunities beyond its major urban centres. The speed at which the country closes its usage and connectivity gaps, it said, will depend on three key factors.

1. Fibre rollout

Beyond cable expansion by operators such as MTN and Airtel Nigeria, the federal government's Project BRIDGE is positioned as an infrastructure project that will define connectivity, particularly broadband coverage. The proposed programme, backed by $500 million from the World Bank within a wider $1.6 billion project-cost framework, aims to deploy 90,000 km of national open-access fibre and expand the network to around 120,000 km. Its impact will depend on open-access wholesale arrangements — under which multiple service providers can run services over shared fibre rather than build duplicate networks — and stronger protection of infrastructure from damage during road construction and vandalism.

2. 5G expansion

The pace at which operators deploy 5G, alongside Nigeria's eventual transition away from older 2G and 3G networks, will shape how quickly additional spectrum and network capacity become available for newer services. MTN's proposed acquisition of 5G spectrum from Mafab is also expected to be a key driver of the network's growth. The leading operator, which already controls 51.3% of Nigeria's mobile market, would potentially have more resources to deploy alongside its existing network infrastructure.

3. Digital identity

In June 2026, the NIMC Act 2026 was signed into law, giving National Identification Numbers (NIN) full legal status for banking, health, tax and passport services, while subjecting data transfers to strict privacy safeguards. The report said the reform, if well implemented, would strengthen infrastructure investment and help create a unified digital economy.

Affordability remains the decisive factor

Even as reforms such as spectrum rollout and planned tower deployment continue, the report cautioned that outcomes will ultimately rest on whether Nigerians currently in the usage gap can afford and use smartphones, at a time when a device costs a significant share of monthly income.

Across most African countries, entry-level smartphones now cost 44% of average monthly income, rising to 76% of average monthly income for the poorest 20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the GSMA, handset cost is cited as a barrier by 57% of men and 52% of women, while data cost is cited by 49% and 48%, respectively.

Device capability matters as well: the lowest-cost smartphones may lack the storage, battery life, software support or network compatibility required for the secure use of financial, government, education and employment services.

Over the next three to four years, the report concludes, Nigeria's success in closing the access and coverage gap will be measured not by growth in infrastructure, subscriptions or connected devices, but by whether more Nigerians regularly use digital services for education, government, finance, commerce and employment.