The euro and the British pound have slipped into quiet consolidation against the US dollar, with market participants reluctant to open fresh positions ahead of a dense run of macroeconomic releases that could reshape expectations for the future policy stance of the world's major central banks.

The next key catalysts will come in the form of inflation readings from Germany and the United States. Germany's annual consumer price index (CPI), due later today, is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%. Such an acceleration could reinforce expectations of further policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and lend support to the euro. The same session also brings US producer price data and weekly jobless claims, giving markets an earlier reading on price pressures at the producer level and on the state of the labor market.

The main event, however, arrives tomorrow with US inflation data, one of the most closely watched monthly releases on the global economic calendar. Headline CPI is expected to come in at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI is forecast at 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Both the Federal Reserve and the ECB steer policy toward a 2% inflation goal, and the projected figures would leave price growth above that benchmark. Coming on the heels of a strong employment report, a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its hawkish stance and support the dollar, while signs of easing price pressures could limit the currency's upside.

For the pound, tomorrow's UK economic calendar offers an additional catalyst. UK gross domestic product for July is forecast to show no growth, after expanding by 0.3% in the previous month, despite expectations of a recovery in manufacturing output. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a more dovish Bank of England and limit the recovery potential of GBP/USD.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has traded sideways in recent sessions, holding within the relatively narrow band of 1.1570–1.1650. A decisive break and sustained push above 1.1650 would clear the path toward a retest of the August high near 1.1710, while a sustained dip below 1.1570 could open the way for a decline toward 1.1500.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims

GBP/USD

After the daily chart showed a retest of the 1.3470 support level, a Stick Sandwich pattern has emerged on GBP/USD. Should the price establish itself above 1.3500 and flip that level into support, the advance could extend toward the 1.3640–1.3680 zone. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.3470 would raise the probability of a deeper corrective move lower.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK manufacturing output
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain locked in consolidation near key technical levels ahead of the fresh batch of macroeconomic data. Germany's inflation figures will provide an additional catalyst for the euro, while the pound is likely to remain sensitive to UK GDP data. For both pairs, however, US inflation will stay the main focus, as it could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and determine the dollar's next direction.