Bitcoin has climbed roughly 24% in a single week to reach $76,845, leading Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, to question whether the bank's official $100,000 year-end price target remains appropriate.

In a note published last Friday, Kendrick said liquidations drove most of the rally, while recovering inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs — the funds approved by the SEC in January 2024 that hold Bitcoin directly and give investors exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts — could provide an additional source of demand. Bitcoin currently trades about 23% below the official forecast and remains nearly 39% under its $126,000 record high from around the October 2025 top.

JUST IN: Standard Chartered says $100K year-end Bitcoin target is "too low." BTC rally to accelerate after October, predicts research head Geoff Kendrick. pic.twitter.com/kvsX822kIX

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What Is Driving Bitcoin's Rally Above $70,000?

Short sellers are forced to buy BTC in order to close their positions, adding demand to the market. Kendrick said this forced buying accounted for most of the latest rally.

BTC broke higher after trading between $60,000 and $65,000 for an extended period, then cleared $65,000, $67,000 and $70,000 — levels that had blocked earlier recovery attempts.

Kendrick also pointed to relatively low market open interest, a measure of the total outstanding derivative contracts that have not yet been closed or settled. Fewer leveraged positions are active than during heavily crowded periods, leaving room for investors to rebuild their exposure.

Flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs had already begun improving before the current breakout. Because the funds hold Bitcoin directly, net inflows require them to add to their holdings, which is why analysts track the daily flow figures as a gauge of demand. The funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending a negative stretch that had lasted 10 days. By July 21, the ETFs had posted inflows for five consecutive trading days, with BTC trading around $65,245 and $70,000 still standing as significant resistance.

Why Is Standard Chartered Keeping Its $100K Target?

Standard Chartered has not officially changed its $100,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast. Kendrick said BTC may revisit $126,000 if the current rally gains stronger momentum, but the bank retains its existing target despite the analyst's more optimistic outlook. Published bank forecasts are one of the reference points market watchers use to track institutional sentiment toward crypto, which is why the gap between Kendrick's personal view and the official house target has drawn attention.

The analyst noted that the rally could intensify following Oct. 6, a date close to the anniversary of the top of Bitcoin's price in 2025, which was followed by a decline in prices.

Standard Chartered lowered its Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000 on February 12. The reduction was attributed to outflows from ETFs, an economic downturn, reduced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and positioning changes.

At first, Kendrick expected BTC to move toward $50,000 before heading higher. Instead, Bitcoin went lower but stopped above that level.

The bank maintained its $100,000 year-end target when Bitcoin approached $61,000 in early June. It kept the forecast after BTC later dropped toward $59,000 and recovered to around $63,500. Kendrick linked the decline to forced liquidations, weak ETF demand and broader liquidity pressure, and at the time described the move toward $59,000 as the likely low of the cycle.

The bank did not lower its outlook again despite the sharp volatility and uncertain institutional demand. Standard Chartered reaffirmed the $100,000 forecast on July 10, when BTC traded above $64,000.

Bitcoin has since gained more than $17,000 from its June low. Kendrick now sees a risk that the official forecast may be too conservative. His outlook depends on continued inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and sustained market momentum through year-end — the same two variables readers can track in the daily flow data when judging whether conditions match the ones he described, and whether the bank turns his view into a formal target revision before December 31.

A further recovery could bring the $126,000 record high back into focus. However, Standard Chartered has not adopted that level as its official year-end target.

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. This is not financial advice.