Thomas Kaplan 认为黄金可能升至 50,000 美元
要点速览
- •Thomas Kaplan 表示，黄金最终可能升至每盎司 30,000 美元至 50,000 美元，并认为从当前水平上涨十倍是有可能的。
- •Kaplan 没有给出时间表，并表示不确定黄金近期回调是否已经见底。
- •他称黄金和白银正处于一个非常漫长的周期，预计两者未来都会继续创出新高。
- •Kaplan 表示，他在 2007 年卖掉家族能源公司后买入黄金和白银，以帮助保护财富。
Thomas Kaplan 认为黄金可能升至 50,000 美元
Mike Maharrey
亿万富翁投资者 Thomas Kaplan 给出了一项引人注目的黄金价格预测，称金价最终可能达到 50,000 美元。
在接受 Kitco News 采访时，Kaplan 表示："Seeing gold go up another tenfold from here, to me, is not just likely, but inevitable."
"I can see gold going to 30, 40, 50,000 dollars without a problem."
Kaplan 是 The Electrum Group 的董事长兼 CIO，这是一家专注于自然资源的咨询与资产管理公司。该公司管理资产规模约为 $2.5 billion。他也是最大的私人 Rembrandt 艺术收藏者。
尽管 Kaplan 给出了大胆的长期预测，但他没有为这轮上涨设定时间表。他表示，黄金和白银正处于"what will be seen to be a very, very long wave in gold and silver, that we will see more highs in both."
对于市场短期走向，他不愿推测，并表示近期回调是否已经见底尚不清楚。
"Maybe it already is, maybe it needs to test again, I don't know."
不过，Kaplan 强调，这个短期问题不会改变他的长期看法。
"Because in the long term, even in the medium term, gold and silver are going to multiply from where they are."
Kaplan 表示，他的策略建立在耐心和长期持有之上，这也说明他的评论针对的是数十年的投资周期，而不是短线交易。在黄金既被视为组合分散工具、又常在不确定时期被当作价值储藏手段的市场中，这一点尤为重要。
"People try to be too clever. And one of the reasons why I do hold things for so long is because, I just say to myself, I’m going to be patient. So long as they are still the best assets in their class, I’ll hold it forever, and I will not be distracted by noise."
Kaplan 在 2007 年卖掉家族能源公司后转向黄金和白银。当时，黄金价格徘徊在每盎司 $550 to $600 左右。
"My view was that the place to protect my wealth, my family’s wealth, when we sold our energy company, which was our biggest asset and our biggest ‘killing,’ as it were, was gold and silver."
他表示，自己在 2007 年进入市场时认为资产价格过于乐观。
"I'd entered 2007 with a view that things were just simply too good, not dissimilar to the way things are right now in certain respects. And that there was just too much bullishness in asset classes."
当时，Kaplan 预测黄金会从 $500 区间上涨至 $3,000 到 $5,000 之间。他说，他认为金价可能先触及 $5,000，然后回落至 $3,000，之后再恢复上涨并继续攀升。
Kaplan 将近期回调比作“1987 moment”，即股市崩盘后又回升至新高的时期。他称这本质上是牛市中的一次回调。
他指出，Black Friday 当天 36 percent 的暴跌“really did seem like the world was falling in upon itself.”
"And yet when you look back over that chart, you can't see it. Certainly, a person of my vintage would need glasses to be able to perceive it. It's that minute."
Kaplan 在 2008 年崩盘前就转向黄金和白银、实际上退出了市场，他表示，如今的环境在他看来也有类似特征。
