随着债务担忧加剧，金价上涨：Frank Holmes SWOT
要点速览
- •现货黄金升至 $4,625.75，料将录得连续第三周接近 6% 的上涨。
- •此次上涨源于美国财政部意外计划增加长期政府债务回购，这一举措帮助压低了美元。
- •投资者在最新交易时段向 SPDR Gold Shares 净投入 $1.01 billion，使基金资产达到 $146 billion。
- •美国联邦债务已升至创纪录的 $40 trillion，加剧了对财政可持续性的担忧。
- •UBS 和 Morgan Stanley 表示，黄金可能在 2027 年或更早挑战或突破每盎司 $5,000。
金 SWOT：随着债务担忧加剧，金价上涨
Frank Holmes
优势
过去一周表现最好的贵金属是铂金，上涨 7.75%。铂金价格走高，原因是结构性供应缺口扩大、地上库存降至极低水平，且南非采矿受限进一步加剧了供应紧张。本周，疲软的美元以及混合动力汽车催化剂需求稳定，也为这一紧张的实物供给背景提供了额外支撑。
现货黄金上周五一度上涨 2.4%，至 $4,625.75，料将录得连续第三周上涨，周涨幅接近 6%，并创下自 5 月以来最高价格。此次上涨源于美国财政部意外宣布将加大长期政府债务回购力度，此举推动美元走低，对黄金形成利好。对于跟踪更广泛市场格局的读者而言，这一动向也表明，黄金仍与美国财政政策、美元以及储备管理资金流变化密切相关，而不仅仅取决于单一催化因素。
在最新交易时段，投资者向 SPDR Gold Shares ETF 净增加 $1.01 billion，令该基金总资产升至 $146 billion。ETF 在最新交易时段增加了 34,870 盎司金。
劣势
过去一周表现最差的贵金属是钯金，受到不断扩大的供应过剩压制。供应过剩主要来自二次回收增加，以及汽车应用中持续用铂金替代钯金。由于高度依赖传统汽油车催化剂，且珠宝和绿色能源用途支持有限，钯金相较其他贵金属更为脆弱。
大型黄金生产商的成本也在上升。UBS 表示，八家最大上市金矿商的平均全维持成本（AISC）上升 7%，相当于每盎司 $120，而现金利润率下降 11%，相当于每盎司 $400。即便金价接近历史高位，更高的运营成本仍可能使矿商对投入品价格变化更为敏感。
俄罗斯一直是黄金净卖方。其黄金储备截至 8 月 1 日年内减少 160 万盎司至 7,320 万盎司，为 2020 年 1 月以来最低水平。随着政府动用黄金持有量为预算赤字筹资，七个月内总储备价值下降 $33.7 billion。
机会
亿万富翁 Ray Dalio 表示，投资者应减少债券持仓，并将多达 15% 的投资组合配置于黄金，以对冲美国债务危机风险。Bloomberg 报道称，Dalio 估计美国政府今年收入约为 $5.5 trillion，而支出约为 $7.5 trillion，存在 $2 trillion 缺口。他警告称，美国债务危机可能会在“three years, give or take two”内到来。Dalio 主张通过削减开支、提高税收收入和降低利率来缩小预算赤字，并预计“gold and Bitcoin 这类非政府生产的货币”表现相对较好。
中国铂金珠宝市场也在变化，年轻消费者正转向低调的“quiet luxury”风格和极简审美，而非传统黄金饰品。根据 Platinum Guild International，这一转变正将铂金需求从婚嫁戒指扩展到增长迅速的日常与生活方式时尚领域。
UBS 分析师预计，黄金将在 2027 年上半年再次挑战每盎司 $5,000 关口，并认为价格突破关键阻力区具有重要意义。Morgan Stanley 认为黄金站上每盎司 $5,000 之上将有更强劲的路径，时间可能在 2027 年或更早，理由包括美联储加息预期减弱、美元走弱、央行强劲买盘以及投资者对财政风险的担忧加剧。根据 Bloomberg Markets Live 一位博主的说法，黄金上涨表明市场正越来越多地为美国机构和政策波动定价，而不仅仅是收益率的反转。
威胁
美国联邦债务已达到创纪录的 $40 trillion，债务增长加快以及更高的利息成本加剧了市场担忧。Michael Peterson 警告称，债务可能在六年内升至 $50 trillion，这将危及经济和国家未来。
Canaccord 将其黄金价格假设在远期曲线上下调约 12%–14%，并将白银假设下调约 12%–20%。其修订后的模型包括 2026 年和长期黄金价格目标，分别为每盎司 $4,374 和每盎司 $4,747；白银目标则分别为每盎司 $69.09 和每盎司 $72.70。
更高的成本仍然是投资者关注的主要问题。UBS 表示，对成本指引上调的担忧在执行指引纪录较差的金矿商中最为明显。对于整个行业而言，这使得执行力和利润率纪律在贵金属价格吸引更多关注的同时，仍处于核心位置。
关于作者
Frank Holmes
Frank Holmes 是 U.S. Global Investors 的首席执行官兼首席投资官。He purchased a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors in 1989 and became chief investment officer in 1999. In 2006, Holmes was named mining fund manager of the year by the Mining Journal, and in 2011 he was selected as a U.S. Metals and Mining "TopGun" by Brendan Wood International. In 2016, Holmes and portfolio manager Ralph Aldis received the award for Best Americas Based Fund Manager from the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.
More than 30,000 subscribers follow his weekly commentary in the award-winning Investor Alert newsletter, which is read in more than 180 countries. Under his leadership, the company’s mutual funds have been recognized by Lipper and Morningstar. In 2015, Holmes led the company into the exchange-traded fund business with the launch of the U.S. Global Jets ETF, which invests in the global airline sector. In 2017, U.S. Global Investors made a strategic investment in HIVE Blockchain Technologies, listed in Toronto, and Holmes was appointed non-executive chairman of the board.
Holmes received the Huron Medal of Distinction from Huron University College in 2013, his alma mater for the class of 1978. The award recognizes individuals whose achievements reflect excellence and Huron’s arts and social sciences missions.
He is a native of Toronto and a graduate of the University of Western Ontario with a bachelor’s degree in economics. He is a former president and chairman of the Toronto Society of the Investment Dealers Association.
Holmes is a frequent keynote speaker at national and international investment conferences. He has spoken at the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference, the Denver Gold Group’s European Gold Forum and numerous Money Show events, and has sat on panels with industry leaders including the editor of Barron’s. He continues to speak at conferences throughout the U.S., Canada and overseas.
He is a regular commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, BNN and Fox Business, and has been profiled by Fortune and The Financial Times. His views on gold appear each week on Gold Game Film in collaboration with Kitco News and TheStreet.com. Holmes was also featured in Barron’s during the commodity rally at the start of 2004. He is a regular contributor to Forbes, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha and the Wall Street Journal’s Experts Corner.
Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the board of directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE, directly and indirectly. This interview should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product.
