Two new polls point to significant challenges for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats leading on the generic House ballot — a standard polling question asking voters which party's candidate they would support in their congressional district — and President Donald Trump’s approval rating remaining near a record low, according to reporting cited by Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman.

Sherman shared the polling Thursday morning and described the numbers as “end days for GOP.” One of the surveys came from Fox News, which reported: “If the election were today, 53 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46 percent the Republican. That 7-point edge is just outside the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 5 points in April. Notably, 53 percent is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.”

Sherman called the result a “big gulf in the generic,” pointing to substantial pressure on Republicans, who currently hold a narrow House majority. His post was published on X: https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2080261247245672921?s=20

The Fox News survey reported additional findings that were unfavorable for the GOP. “President Donald Trump’s job approval remains near a record low, more Democrats are motivated to vote, Republicans join Democrats and independents in rating the economy negatively, and 4 in 10 voters want ‘dramatic’ or ‘revolutionary’ change. Plus, more view the GOP as tied to elites than the Democratic Party,” Fox wrote.

The issue-by-issue results also showed Democrats with advantages across several major policy areas. According to Fox, “Voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7). Republicans hold the advantage on crime (+7 points), while government spending (Democrats +3) and national security (R +2) are more evenly divided. On immigration, the GOP had an 8-point edge in April. Now, Democrats are preferred by one point.”

The poll found that the share of voters who say they are experiencing “severe” financial hardship because of inflation has risen by 8 percent since last year. It also found that 54 percent of voters expect the economy to get worse over the next year.

Fox further reported that in counties where the 2024 presidential vote was close — defined as Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris finishing within 10 points of each other — “the Democratic candidate leads by 59-41 percent.”

The Fox results were paired with another new poll from Emerson, which showed Democrats with an 11-point lead on the generic ballot. Taken together, the polling prompted Sherman’s assessment that “that’s end days for GOP.” The results are consistent with the historical pattern in which the president’s party tends to lose House seats in midterm elections, a trend that has held across multiple administrations regardless of party.

The findings come as Republicans prepare for the midterm elections, with Fox’s own analysis indicating that the party faces a high risk of losing its House majority. The polling also showed voters expressing a desire for major change, a factor that could shape the broader political environment ahead of the 2028 presidential race.