Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday has emerged as the next battleground in an intraparty struggle between progressives and moderates, following a narrow progressive victory in Michigan's U.S. Senate primary one week earlier. The race carries particular weight in Wisconsin, a perennial swing state where statewide elections are routinely decided by razor-thin margins.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, endorsed by two-term Gov. Tony Evers, is facing democratic socialist Francesca Hong in a race that will serve as a national barometer for how far left the party is willing to move. The winner will advance to November's general election against Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump and one of Congress's most conservative members.

The Wisconsin contest follows progressive Abdul El-Sayed's narrow defeat of Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. Voters in Minnesota will also head to the polls Tuesday to decide another U.S. Senate primary pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. The trio of races represents the latest flashpoints in a Democratic divide that has shaped the party's primaries since the 2016 presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Crowley Banks on Evers Endorsement

In a year when voters disenchanted with the Democratic establishment have propelled outsider candidates to victory nationwide, Crowley is working to buck that trend in Wisconsin. He is leaning on the support of Evers, one of the state's most popular elected officials, to gain ground in the final stretch of a turbulent primary.

Crowley noted that El-Sayed's slim margin of victory in Michigan "does give me a little bit of hope."

"We're going to focus on those undecided voters," Crowley said.

Sarah Miller, a 49-year-old software engineer from Madison who described herself as a progressive, said she is supporting Crowley because she prioritizes winning in November. She called Hong a "very, very weak candidate" and characterized her popularity as "a little bit of a mirage."

"I don't think she can win," Miller said at a Crowley campaign event a week before Election Day at a winery in New Glarus.

"The divide is real," Miller said of the tension between progressives and mainstream Democrats, but added that her focus is on the general election.

A Chaotic Primary Landscape

A Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin Democratic primary voters, conducted in late July before former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes exited the race, showed Hong holding a significant lead over the other candidates. More than 112,000 absentee ballots had already been returned by the time the poll was released, meaning a substantial share of voters cast their ballots before the field narrowed to its current shape.

Crowley's path has been complicated by unusual circumstances. He withdrew from the race on July 8 and reentered just 10 days later with Evers' backing, after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ended her candidacy. Twelve days after that, Barnes also dropped out amid allegations of inappropriate behavior. Both Barnes and Rodriguez, previously regarded as potential front-runners, remain on the ballot, and votes already cast for them cannot be reversed.

"We've created a mess," said Michael Gebben, a 64-year-old Democrat who voted absentee for Rodriguez before she suspended her campaign. "Hopefully we can get out of it."

Hong Confronts Past Statements

While Crowley campaigned across the state to win over undecided voters, Hong was working to contain controversies over her past social media activity. Hong, a single mother and former restaurant cook, faced scrutiny over posts in which she called for canceling Thanksgiving because "we should stop celebrating colonialism," dismissed Valentine's Day as "another day capitalism tells you how to show love," and repeatedly advocated for defunding the police.

In recent days, Hong has walked back or clarified many of those statements, now stating that she does not support abolishing the police.

Tiffany seized on Hong's Thanksgiving remarks, saying she wants "to destroy the traditions and culture that unite us." Tiffany, who entered August with ten times more cash on hand than either Hong or Crowley, has framed the race as a choice between chaos and common sense.

"Wisconsinites can't afford for November to come down to the most extreme things Tom Tiffany and Francesca Hong have said online," Evers' spokesperson Britt Cudaback said in a social media post this week explaining the governor's decision to endorse Crowley.

Crowley's mention of the Evers endorsement drew applause at both of his campaign stops in New Glarus and Madison this week. However, similar endorsements have not always proved decisive elsewhere. In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer backed the moderate Stevens, who ultimately fell short.

Crowley Rejects Establishment Label

Despite Evers' support, Crowley insists he is not an establishment figure, even though he has served more than three years in the Legislature and has been the top elected official in Milwaukee County, the state's largest jurisdiction, since 2020.

"When people try to call me the establishment, I look at that as a slur, particularly as an African American candidate," said Crowley, who is seeking to become Wisconsin's first Black governor. "I have never run for office to protect the establishment. I've always been here to protect people."

Hong supporter Chris Vestin, 54, dismissed the electability concerns surrounding Hong, comparing the skepticism to the dynamic that favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential race. Sanders defeated Clinton in the Wisconsin primary by 13 points that year before losing the general election to Trump. Trump carried Wisconsin in 2016, lost it in 2020, and won it again in 2024.

"It frustrates me when they say that person is unelectable," Vestin said of Hong, who is campaigning to become both Wisconsin's first woman governor and first Asian American governor. "A lot of times it's racist, it's sexist."

Vestin called Evers' endorsement of Crowley "counterproductive."

"Establishment Democrats want to take the choice away," Vestin said.

High Stakes in November

In Minnesota, Tuesday's Senate primary between Craig and Flanagan is unfolding in the wake of Trump's aggressive immigration enforcement operations in the state.

The stakes are arguably even higher in Wisconsin. Democrats are fighting to retain the governor's office and flip both chambers of the Legislature to secure full control of state government — a "trifecta" — for the first time since 2010. Republicans held unified control from 2011 to 2018 under then-Gov. Scott Walker, during which they enacted a sweeping conservative agenda that included Act 10, legislation that effectively eliminated collective bargaining rights for public workers and triggered weeks of protests at the state Capitol that drew national attention. Republican legislative majorities have also benefited from district maps drawn after the 2010 Census that Democrats and voting-rights groups have repeatedly challenged as among the most aggressively gerrymandered in the country.

"We need a trifecta," Crowley told supporters at the New Glarus rally. "And who is at the top of the ticket matters."

Crowley supporter Lindsey Lee, 61, of Madison, said he believed previously undecided Democrats were increasingly rallying behind Crowley.

"It's like the last 50 yards of a horse race," Lee said. "Hong is obviously in the lead but Crowley is coming up on a side lane. I think it will be a photo finish."