Moderate Republicans Turning Away from Trump as Approval Ratings Plunge, CNN Analyst Warns
Key Takeaways
- •Trump's net approval among moderate Republicans has fallen 59 points since October 2024, dropping from a 69-point lead over Kamala Harris to a slim plus-ten margin.
- •Economic concerns are the leading cause of Trump's declining support, with his economic trust advantage collapsing 77 points from an 80-point edge to near parity.
- •Moderate Republicans make up approximately 30 to 40 percent of the party and are considered a critical voting bloc in competitive House districts.
- •The loss of moderate GOP support could jeopardize Republican prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, where control of both chambers of Congress will be at stake.

President Donald Trump is encountering significant pushback from within his own Republican Party over major issues including the war in Iran and inflation, according to CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten, who appeared on the network Tuesday.
In a segment examining the non-MAGA faction of the Republican Party, Enten told CNN anchor Kate Bolduan that a single word captures Trump's standing among moderate Republicans: "Yikes."
"Yikes is the word," Enten said before displaying the data on screen. "This is the moderate GOP on Trump, this includes leaners. This is about 30-to-40 percent of the party, depending on how you look at it. Versus [former Vice President] Kamala Harris, Trump easily was winning amongst them by 69 points back in October of 2024 … Right now we're talking about just a plus-ten net approval rating. This is within his own party. He's just barely above water."
"That's a 59-point drop … in the course of under two years," Enten continued. "So moderate Republicans are abandoning Donald John Trump. And that is a big 'uh oh.'"
Moderate and suburban Republican voters have long been a decisive constituency in competitive House districts, where general election outcomes often hinge on the party's ability to retain voters who are not part of the MAGA base.
When asked what is driving Trump's decline among Republican voters, Enten pointed squarely to economic concerns. "It's the economy," he said.
On that issue, Trump has seen a 77-point drop in confidence, according to Enten's analysis. The CNN data analyst presented a graphic illustrating how moderate GOP voters viewed Trump "and the economy back in October of 2024."
"[Trump] was more trusted than Kamala Harris by 80 points," Enten said. "Now he's just one, two, three points above water. That is, as I said, a 77-point drop on the key issue that got Donald Trump reelected to a second term."
"Moderate Republicans have abandoned Donald Trump, and now he is just treading water with a group that overwhelmingly supported him," Enten added.
The CNN analyst noted that inflation was a defining economic issue going back to 2020. "Inflation was the name of the game with the economy back in 2020," he explained.
"For now, moderate Republicans, who make up roughly 30-to-40 percent of the party, have absolutely left Donald Trump aside. And he is underwater on the key issue of the day," Enten said. "If I'm a Republican running for congress in those swing districts, I need those moderate Republicans, and they are leaving Donald Trump."
The trend Enten described carries implications for the 2026 midterm elections, when control of the House and Senate will again be contested in districts where moderate Republican and independent voters frequently determine the outcome.