Private Nonfarm Payrolls: ADP Reports 44,000 Gain vs. 68,000 Bloomberg Consensus
Key Takeaways
- •ADP’s latest private payroll estimate was 44,000, versus 68,000 in Bloomberg consensus.
- •The chart compares ADP’s monthly estimate with the Bureau of Labor Statistics private nonfarm payroll series.
- •The figure also includes a 2023M04-2025M03 stochastic trend line.
- •All series shown in the figure are seasonally adjusted and measured in thousands.
+44K versus +68K per Bloomberg consensus.
That compares with the prior month’s private payroll data series shown in Figure 1, which tracks the change since 2025M03 in private nonfarm payroll employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (blue), from ADP (red), and the 2023M04-2025M03 stochastic trend (gray line), all in thousands, seasonally adjusted. Because ADP’s monthly estimate and the BLS measure are both watched as labor-market snapshots, the comparison helps readers place the latest print in the context of a closely followed government series without changing the underlying data.
Figure 1 shows the change since 2025M03 in private nonfarm payroll employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (blue), from ADP (red), and the 2023M04-2025M03 stochastic trend (gray line), all in thousands, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED.
