Zcash (ZEC), a privacy-focused cryptocurrency, faces competing price forecasts ahead of its NU7 mainnet upgrade, expected around November 5–6. Analyst Crypto Patel warned that ZEC could fall another 50–70% after its reported 10,500% two-year rally, maintaining a bearish outlook below $1,699. Analyst Ardi identified $1,370 as the key breakout level, with a move above it potentially opening a run toward $1,500–1,700. ZEC is consolidating near $1,250–1,260, with support at $1,160 and $1,100; losing $1,100 could expose further downside.

NU7 Upgrade Raises Sell-the-News Concerns

Network upgrades like NU7 are scheduled protocol changes, and because their timing is known in advance, they are often watched for a “sell-the-news” dynamic, in which gains built up ahead of a widely anticipated event unwind once the event arrives. Crypto Patel questioned whether traders had already priced in the upcoming upgrade. The analyst said ZEC's rally reflected a completed “buy the rumor” trade — the first half of the market adage “buy the rumor, sell the news” — and warned of a possible correction. In a post on X, Patel stated that his bearish outlook remains valid unless ZEC reaches a new all-time high above $1,699, and that he requires a confirmed higher-timeframe close above that price before changing his view.

Ardi, however, is watching a different technical setup. The analyst identified an ascending triangle developing from the $1,050 lows. Buyers have repeatedly defended the neckline area associated with a potential macro head-and-shoulders pattern.

$1,370 Breakout Could Change Ardi's Position

ZEC has made several attempts to break $1,370 while holding its rising trendline. Ardi said a breakout could trigger a squeeze toward recent highs between $1,500 and $1,700. The analyst disclosed a short position opened at $1,420, but plans to close those shorts and turn long if ZEC breaks above $1,370.

Without that breakout, Ardi expects the broader downtrend to continue. A breakdown below the trendline and the $1,210 support could expose $1,100, and losing that neckline area could send ZEC toward liquidity around its previous cycle high.

ZEC Chart Shows Consolidation After September Rally

A November 2 chart places ZEC around $1,250–1,260, following its September peak near $1,650. Price climbed from roughly $500 in August, then retreated toward the $1,100–1,200 range during October. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged near current prices.

Trading volume reached spikes above $2 billion during the rally, including one reading near $3.92 billion. The latest reading stood around $634.99 million.

The chart identifies $1,300–1,350 as resistance, with support at $1,160 and $1,100. A break above resistance could expose $1,500 and $1,650, while a loss of $1,100 could open further downside. With the NU7 activation window around November 5–6, the reference points remain the ones both analysts have outlined: Patel's required higher-timeframe close above $1,699, Ardi's $1,370 breakout trigger, and the $1,100 support underpinning his downside scenario.