XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger and the digital asset associated with payments company Ripple, could fall toward $0.98 if large holders continue selling and the price breaks below the $1.26 support level, according to analyst Ali Charts (posted on X). The warning follows a decline in the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP and a steady rise in exchange balances. The token traded at $1.276 on October 26, below its 50-day moving average, while daily active addresses have fallen to roughly 23,800 even as the holder count has climbed to 8.25 million.

Whale Wallets Decline as XRP Exchange Balances Increase

Ali Charts reported that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP declined from 351 to 339 over recent weeks. The drop suggests that some large holders may be reducing their exposure to the token. Wallet cohorts of this size are widely tracked in on-chain analytics, where shifts in their counts are often read as a gauge of how large holders are positioning.

At the same time, XRP held on exchanges increased from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion. That represents roughly 50 million additional XRP sitting on trading platforms, where holders could sell their tokens. balances are among the metrics traders track for potential sell-side supply, since tokens held on trading platforms can be sold at short notice.

Ali Charts identified both changes as part of a bearish scenario, alongside a potential break below $1.26. If that support fails, the analyst sees $1.11 as the next downside level, followed by $0.98. The latter target sits about 22% below $1.26.

XRP Chart Shows Weakness Below Key Moving Averages

XRP's price has swung widely in recent months. The token declined from around $1.40–$1.45 in late April before falling below $1.15 in June. It briefly approached $1.00 in August, then rallied above $1.50 during mid-August. XRP went on to reach nearly $1.60 in late September before reversing lower.

Since then, the token has formed lower highs and lower lows. Its price currently sits below the 50-day moving average near $1.31 and the 200-day average around $1.41, levels that now represent nearby resistance areas. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are among the most widely followed trend indicators in crypto markets.

Network Activity Falls as Traders Watch $1.26 Support

Daily active addresses surged in mid-August alongside XRP's rally, but activity has since declined, with the latest reading standing near 23,800. Active addresses are a commonly used gauge of on-chain network usage. Meanwhile, the total number of XRP holders has continued rising, reaching approximately 8.25 million, leaving holder growth and day-to-day network activity moving in opposite directions.

On the chart, the $1.25–$1.27 range is identified as near-term support. A breakdown could expose $1.20 and, potentially, the August lows near $1.00. On the upside, a recovery above $1.31 could open a move toward the $1.38–$1.41 area. With the analyst's scenario contingent on continued whale selling, the direction of the whale wallet count and of exchange balances stands out as the data to watch alongside price action at $1.26.