XRP rebounded to $1.30 after gaining 2.15% in 24 hours, as rising ledger activity and a recovery above the $1.28 level strengthened the token's short-term outlook. The move came after analyst Ali Charts identified $1.25 as a potential bottom, following a surge that pushed the dollar value of XRP transferred on-chain to $49.70 billion. XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, a blockchain whose on-chain transfer activity is closely watched for signals about holder behavior.

The rebound is set against a mixed backdrop. CryptoQuant data shows exchange reserves climbed to 11.81 billion XRP on October 17, placing them in the 99th percentile of the past year, while Binance open interest declined as leveraged positions unwound during the recent price correction. The central question for traders is whether buyers can defend support while exchange-held supply remains elevated.

Analyst Points to $1.25 Bottom as On-Chain Value Surges

Ali Charts argued that XRP could have established a bottom near $1.25 after a sharp increase in on-chain transaction value. On-chain transaction value measures the dollar worth of tokens moved across a blockchain over a given period. The analyst linked the activity to the rebound and suggested that holding this level could open a path toward $2.

XRP: THE BOTTOM IS IN Transaction volume on the $XRP Ledger exploded last night as prices hovered around the $1.25 support. The total dollar value of coins transferred on-chain skyrocketed to $49.70 billion, coinciding with the rebound that is now taking place. This surge in… pic.twitter.com/fQTEvKsTKk

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 19, 2026

XRP's latest price action offers some support for the recovery scenario. CoinMarketCap data at press time shows the token trading at $1.30, up 2.15% over 24 hours. Its relative strength index (RSI), an indicator of price momentum, stood at 36.94 — readings below 30 are traditionally viewed as oversold — while the price remained above the reported 200-day moving average at $1.28. Trading volume also increased by 48%, supporting the rebound with greater market participation.

Still, a bounce from oversold conditions does not confirm a lasting reversal. XRP needs to maintain support and attract sustained buying to strengthen the bullish case.

Exchange Reserves Reach 11.81 Billion as Leverage Unwinds

CryptoQuant reported that aggregate XRP exchange reserves reached 11.81 billion tokens on October 17, placing them in the 99th percentile of the previous 365 days. The percentile reading indicates reserves stood higher than on roughly 99% of days over the past year. High exchange balances can signal that substantial supply is available for trading, although reserves alone do not confirm that holders intend to sell.

Derivatives activity pointed in the opposite direction. Binance open interest — the total value of outstanding futures contracts — fell from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17, a decline of 15.8%. Long liquidations, the forced closure of leveraged long positions when falling prices exhaust their margin, reached $25.7 million on October 7–8, while XRP dropped from $1.52 to $1.29 over the same period. The Binance leverage ratio, a measure of leveraged exposure relative to exchange-held tokens, also declined from 0.205 to 0.170. Funding was negative on six of the past 11 days; negative funding means short positions pay long ones on perpetual futures, a configuration typically read as positioning leaning bearish. CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain interpreted these movements as evidence that leveraged bullish positions were being cleared, as detailed in a Quicktake analysis.

XRP Reserves Hit 11.81B, Near Yearly High, as Binance Leverage Unwinds "For now, the clearest reading is that leverage has reset faster than exchange supply has." – By @CryptoOnchain Complete breakdown ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/xFEMzReMcD

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 19, 2026

Read together, the two datasets frame the setup traders are weighing: derivative positioning has cooled while the supply held on exchanges sits near the top of its yearly range. Notably, Binance's own reserves stood at 2.67 billion XRP, at the 30th percentile of their yearly range, suggesting the broader reserve increase was concentrated on other venues.

Rally Targets $1.40 and $2 Remain Conditional

In the near term, XRP's ability to hold $1.28 remains important. The level coincides with the reported 200-day moving average, a measure traders frequently reference for trend direction. A sustained recovery above it could bring resistance between $1.34 and $1.40 into focus, while failure to defend support would leave $1.25 vulnerable to another test.

Market analyst XRP Update identified a weekly support zone between $1.22 and $1.34. If buyers defend this range, the analyst highlighted potential upside levels at $1.50–$1.70, followed $2.09 and $2.32. These remain conditional targets rather than confirmed price outcomes.

Traders should also monitor exchange reserve changes, spot trading volume and open interest for evidence of renewed demand, alongside whether funding rates return to positive territory, the regime in which longs pay shorts and long positioning dominates. These metrics are commonly reviewed to assess whether a rebound has durable buying behind it. CryptoQuant noted that whale volume fell 44% week over week, while tokens transferred declined 37%.

For now, XRP's rebound offers a possible recovery signal, but elevated exchange reserves and weaker on-chain activity leave the broader outlook unresolved.

Source: Live Bitcoin News