XRP rose from approximately $1.11 to $1.14 over the past week, briefly testing resistance near $1.16 before pulling back. While the move appeared constructive, buyers now face a critical ceiling. A decisive breakout above recent highs could pave the way toward $1.32. Without such a breakout, the rally risks stalling as short-term traders take profits.

The advance comes on the heels of nine consecutive weeks of net inflows into XRP investment products, totaling roughly $17.2 million. However, the pace of new inflows has decelerated, with the most recent weekly figure dropping to approximately $12 million — indicating that institutional demand remains positive but is no longer accelerating. The slowing inflow pace also comes amid a broader backdrop in which multiple asset managers — including Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital — have filed applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States, following the precedent set by approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Approval of an XRP ETF would open an additional regulated channel for institutional exposure, though timelines remain uncertain pending SEC review.

Price action can lead fund flows temporarily, but that relationship becomes less reliable as inflows cool. Traders chasing momentum should monitor whether demand keeps pace; if it does not, momentum could fade even if technical indicators still appear favorable.

Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act and the broader U.S. regulatory landscape remain significant catalysts for XRP. The CLARITY Act, introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025, seeks to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets by delineating the respective jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC over token classification. Clearer regulatory rules could bolster institutional conviction and support further upside. Conversely, delays or underwhelming legislative progress may encourage investors to remain cautious despite the recent price recovery. This legislative attention follows the July 2023 federal court ruling in SEC v. Ripple, which determined that XRP is not a security when sold on public exchanges to retail buyers — a decision that many market participants viewed as a pivotal moment for token classification in the United States.

Technical Outlook: Cup-and-Handle Pattern in Focus

XRP is working through a potential cup-and-handle pattern that has been forming since early July. The neckline currently sits near the $1.16 to $1.17 area. The consolidation observed since July 21 still resembles the handle, provided buyers maintain current support levels. Lighter selling volume during the pullback suggests profit-taking rather than aggressive distribution.

Support is clustered between $1.12 and $1.13, where recent lows have attracted buyers. A stronger support floor sits near $1.05 should selling pressure intensify. On the upside, immediate resistance ranges from $1.16 to $1.18, followed by $1.32. A breakout above that level could expose the next resistance zone near $1.46.

The earlier breakout from the $1.14 region was accompanied by a notable surge in trading volume, establishing a benchmark for meaningful market participation. Traders will likely look for a similar volume spike before treating any subsequent breakout as sustainable.

The bullish scenario calls for XRP to reclaim and hold above $1.18 on a daily close basis. If buying momentum strengthens, the price could revisit $1.32 before testing $1.46. The base-case scenario envisions XRP trading in a range between $1.12 and $1.18 as market participants await fresh regulatory or macroeconomic catalysts.

A bearish scenario would materialize if XRP closes below $1.12 on rising volume. Such a move would weaken the handle structure and increase the risk of a decline toward $1.05.

MVRV Readings Signal Underwater Holders

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) data adds another dimension to the analysis. The MVRV ratio compares an asset's market capitalization to its realized capitalization — the aggregate cost basis of all coins based on when they last moved on-chain. Negative 30-day and 365-day MVRV readings indicate that many recent and longer-term holders remain underwater — a condition some contrarian investors interpret as an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

LiquidChain Positions as Multi-Chain Infrastructure Play

As XRP tests resistance, some traders are exploring earlier-stage infrastructure projects. LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project that positions itself as a unified execution environment, merging Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single settlement layer.

The next generation of infrastructure won't stand alone. It'll connect everything around it. ⟁ pic.twitter.com/mWc9fGndPd — LiquidChain (@getliquidchain) July 21, 2026

The project's architecture features a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and Deploy-Once Architecture, targeting the fragmentation issues that make multi-chain DeFi operations costly. LiquidChain's current presale price is $0.01482, with total funds raised standing at $915,000.