XRP closed at $1.4554 on the latest daily candle, down from a $1.5505 high.

The 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, and the death cross is still in place.

That broader setup continues to point to a bearish medium-term structure, even as XRP has recently moved higher. The crypto market flipped from fear to "extreme greed" this week for the first time since 2024, and the Ripple-linked XRP rode that shift sharply higher. "Extreme greed" sits at the top end of the fear-to-greed sentiment scale, a widely followed gauge of crowd psychology across the crypto market.

XRP, the cryptocurrency created by the co-founders of Ripple, erased its most bearish signal last week and surged, logging a 46% gain over seven days and pushing its market capitalization above $91 billion, keeping it among the largest digital assets by market value.

But, as often happens, what rises sharply can also retrace. XRP’s hot streak is now cooling, with the token falling as much as 2% earlier today.

XRP was not the only top-10 cryptocurrency to pull back, but among the day’s decliners, its drop was one of the smaller ones. In other words, the cooldown is playing out across the broader market rather than singling out XRP.

XRP price: What the charts say

XRP is trading at $1.4554 on the daily chart, down from a $1.5505 high, in a recovery that has not yet escaped a longer-term downtrend.

For much of April through July, XRP trended lower before bottoming near $1.00 in early August. Since then, the move has been sharply higher, with the token rising about 55% to $1.55. The Average Directional Index, a measure of trend strength regardless of direction, reached 44.8, indicating the move was a strong directional leg rather than a weak bounce.

However, when a move runs too hot for too long, it can run into resistance. XRP reached $1.55 and then reversed. The latest daily candle closed at $1.4554 after opening at $1.4818, marking a second straight down day. The price action resembles a relief rally stalling beneath resistance rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

XRP’s 50-day average, also known as EMA50, remains below the 200-day average in the pattern traders call a death cross. When the shorter average is below the longer one, the medium-term trend is still considered downward, suggesting bearish conditions may still be ahead.

A death cross is a lagging signal. It only unwinds when the 50-day average eventually climbs back above the 200-day average, the inverse pattern traders call a golden cross. XRP’s sharp August rally pushed the token well above both moving averages before this pullback, which is why the recent strength did not immediately change the broader structure.

Still, with the death cross intact, XRP’s rebound could turn into a bull trap if the market rejects $1.55 again — a setup in which an apparent breakout reverses and strands buyers who chased the highs.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is 76.8. RSI is a momentum indicator on a 0–100 scale, with readings above 70 considered overbought and readings below 30 considered oversold. At 76.8, XRP is stretched to the upside, which suggests the recovery has run hot rather than signaling a clean breakout.

The bullish case would require XRP to reclaim and hold $1.5507, then move toward $1.5824 and $1.6227. That would depend on squeeze momentum building while RSI cools without the price breaking down.

The bearish case comes into play if XRP loses the $1.4342 floor and the recovery slips back toward the early-August base. A daily close below $1.4342 would put the $1.40 level and the $1.00 origin of the rally back in play.

Until XRP reclaims $1.5507, the base case points lower, with a drift toward $1.4342 before the squeeze resolves the next move.

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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