XRP closed at $1.4554 on the latest daily candle, down from a $1.5505 high, as its hot streak cools after a run that lifted the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency to a market capitalization above $91 billion — a size that keeps it among the largest cryptocurrencies by market value.

The pullback follows a broad shift in market sentiment. The crypto market flipped from fear to "extreme greed" this week for the first time since 2024 — a reading on the widely followed Fear & Greed Index, which compresses volatility, momentum, social-media chatter and other market signals into a single 0–100 scale — and XRP — the cryptocurrency created by the co-founders of Ripple and used in the company's cross-border payments products — rode that wave hard. Last week the token erased its most bearish signal and took off, registering a 46% gain over seven days. Extremes on sentiment gauges of this kind are closely watched by traders, and contrarians read them as a sign that a market may be running hot.

What goes up must come down, and XRP's hot streak is now cooling, with the price dropping as much as 2% earlier today. XRP is not the only top-10 coin pulling back today, but among the decliners, its drop is one of the shallowest.

What the charts say

XRP is trading at $1.4554 on the daily chart, down from a $1.5505 high, in a recovery that still has not escaped a longer-term downtrend.

For the better part of April through July, XRP ground lower, bottoming near $1.00 in early August. The move since then has been vertical — a roughly 55% rip to $1.55 — with the Average Directional Index (ADX), an indicator that measures trend strength regardless of direction, at 44.8, confirming this was no weak bounce but a strong directional leg.

Running too hot for too long can cause issues, and this leg ran straight to $1.55 before reversing. The latest daily candle closed at $1.4554 after opening at $1.4818, the second straight down day — the shape of a relief rally stalling under resistance rather than a trend reversal.

Death cross still in play

XRP's 50-day moving average (EMA50) sits below its 200-day average in the formation traders call a death cross. When the shorter average sits below the longer one, the medium-term trajectory still points downward, suggesting bearish conditions remain ahead for the coin.

A death cross is a lagging signal: the sharp August rally lifted XRP well above both lines before this pullback, which is why the recent strength did not instantly flip the stack. But with the death cross still active, XRP's bounce risks resolving into a bull trap if the market rejects $1.55 again. The signal only clears once the 50-day average climbs back above its 200-day counterpart — the mirror-image formation known as a golden cross — and that crossover is what chart watchers will be tracking as the recovery plays out.

Momentum stretched

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 76.8. RSI is a momentum gauge on a 0–100 scale, where readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and readings below 30 indicate oversold ones. At 76.8, XRP is stretched to the upside — a warning that the recovery ran hot rather than a green light.

Bull and bear scenarios

The bull case depends on XRP reclaiming and holding $1.5507, then driving toward $1.5824 and $1.6227. That would require what traders call squeeze momentum to fire and RSI to cool without the price breaking down.

In the bear case, XRP loses the $1.4342 floor and the recovery slips back toward the early-August base. A daily close under $1.4342 would put the $1.40 shelf and the $1.00 origin of the rally back in play.

Until XRP reclaims $1.5507, the base case is lower — a drift toward $1.4342 before the squeeze decides the next leg.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

Source: Decrypt