XRP was trading near $1.37 on the XRP/USD daily chart at the time of writing, holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.34 — a level that has served as the immediate anchor during the pullback from the September high near $1.70. That price range has taken on added significance as recent futures activity eases from an elevated monthly level and exchange-flow data offers only an incomplete view of supply.

Recovery Reaches First Resistance

The first resistance range sits at $1.425–$1.428, where the 50-day simple moving average near $1.4254 overlaps with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $1.4278. Fibonacci retracements, which measure how much of a prior move price has given back, are among the most widely followed reference levels in technical analysis. XRP also remains beneath a descending trendline that passes through the high-$1.40s, creating an additional chart reference above the moving average.

Daily RSI, a momentum gauge that compares the strength of recent gains against losses, was near 42.3, below the 50 midpoint and beneath its own moving average, leaving momentum subdued during the rebound. A sustained recovery through the $1.425–$1.428 range could shift attention toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level near $1.53.

Futures Positions Have Eased From an Elevated Month

A CryptoQuant analysis found that XRP's 30-day average open interest on Binance had reached an eight-month high of about $511 million. The latest daily reading was lower, near $467 million, while the 30-day rolling open-interest Z-score stood around -0.99, indicating that the earlier surge in outstanding futures positions has eased from its recent average.

Open interest — the total value of futures contracts still outstanding — includes positions held by both bullish and bearish traders, so the data cannot identify which side has been closing positions. It does show, however, that XRP is currently carrying less futures activity than the level that produced the eight-month monthly average.

Exchange Activity Gives Only a Partial Supply Picture

A second CryptoQuant reading noted a rising share of XRP withdrawal transactions while exchange-reserve trends diverged. Withdrawal dominance can indicate that more transfers are moving away from exchange wallets than toward them, which may reduce readily available supply in some circumstances. Because blockchain transfers are publicly auditable, exchange inflows and outflows rank among the most closely tracked on-chain metrics in crypto.

Transaction share measures transfer frequency rather than net volume. A large number of small withdrawals can sit alongside a few large exchange deposits, producing a very different supply picture from the one implied by transaction count alone. Broader reserve declines and netflow data would provide firmer evidence that XRP is leaving exchange balances at scale.

Withdrawal-heavy activity also appeared during an earlier period when Binance withdrawals exceeded deposits. The current setup differs because the latest flow reading now sits beside a futures market that has cooled from a much higher recent average.

Lower Support Zone Tests the Broader Structure

If XRP cannot maintain the current pullback area, the daily chart points to a deeper range where several longer-term references gather. The zone's relevance comes from the overlap of Fibonacci and moving-average levels rather than a single exact support price:

• Near $1.34 — immediate: the 50% Fibonacci retracement is holding the current pullback together.
• $1.26–$1.28 — larger confluence zone: the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA meet in this range.
• Near $1.14 — lower Fibonacci reference: the 78.6% retracement would become relevant only after a sustained loss of the higher support cluster.

The50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, a constructive medium-term feature of the chart. The $1.26–$1.28 range draws its nearer importance from the 61.8% retracement and the 100-day and 200-day averages clustered around it, while the moving-average cross provides the broader backdrop.

Golden Cross Supports the Broader Trend

XRP's 50-day simple moving average has crossed above its 200-day average, forming a pattern known as a golden cross. Technical analysts usually read the formation as a constructive medium-term signal, because it indicates that the more recent price trend has become stronger than the longer-term one. Crossovers between these two averages are tracked closely across both traditional and crypto markets, and the opposite formation — a 50-day crossing below the 200-day, known as a death cross — is typically read as a bearish medium-term signal.

On this chart, the 50-day SMA sits near $1.425 and has become part of the immediate resistance cluster. The 200-day SMA is closer to $1.280, within the deeper $1.26–$1.28 support range alongside the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day average. That convergence gives the lower zone added significance if XRP's present support fails.

A golden cross provides trend context rather than a price target. XRP would still need to reclaim the $1.425–$1.428 resistance area and hold above it for the recovery to strengthen. A move back below $1.34 could shift attention toward the lower moving-average and Fibonacci cluster, while reserve data and spot activity would help clarify whether exchange withdrawals reflect sustained demand.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical indicators and on-chain metrics are interpretive tools, not guarantees of future price movement.