XRP could decline toward the $1.18–$1.20 zone if the price breaks below $1.25, before a potential bullish reversal, according to analyst Egrag Crypto. The token currently trades near $1.41, and the analyst's daily-chart roadmap identifies $1.25 as a possible breakdown level, with the $1.30–$1.45 range remaining important for consolidation.

Egrag Crypto outlined the scenario in an analysis shared on X, where he is tracking a yellow fractal formation that suggests further corrective movement may unfold before a bullish reversal takes hold. Fractal analysis is a charting technique in which traders map earlier price patterns onto current structures to outline possible paths for the market, and it is typically used to frame scenarios rather than certainties. His short-term outlook places XRP's consolidation range between $1.30 and $1.45.

A breakdown below $1.25 could expose the $1.18–$1.20 zone, which the analyst identifies as a major reversal area. However, he noted the scenario would require reassessment if XRP falls below $1.18. Should the token reverse from that region, Egrag Crypto maps successive upside targets at $1.50, $1.63, and $1.80. He also highlighted the 100 EMA and macro trendlines as key technical references, describing the macro trend as bullish while characterizing the shorter-term picture as bearish. The 100 EMA is an exponential moving average weights recent prices more heavily and is commonly used to judge trend direction, which is why it serves as one of the reference points between those two readings.

XRP Trades Below Key Resistance on the Four-Hour Chart

Four-hour market data shows XRP changing hands at $1.4082 on the Binance XRP/USDT pair (chart), down 0.32% on the latest candle, with trading volume at 3.55 million XRP. The token climbed to approximately $1.62–$1.65 around September 23–24 before losing momentum. Selling pressure intensified around October 7–9, pushing XRP toward $1.34 before a recovery back toward $1.41.

Immediate resistance stands at $1.42–$1.45, followed by $1.48–$1.50. Support sits around $1.35–$1.38, with stronger support near $1.30. Those near-term zones nest within, or just above, the analyst's $1.30–$1.45 consolidation range, so the four-hour picture offers an early read on whether the daily-chart roadmap stays intact.

Momentum Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index stands at 47.85, above its moving average of 45.34, but remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that bullish momentum has not firmly established itself. The RSI measures the pace of price changes on a scale from 0 to 100, which is why the 50 line is widely treated as the midpoint between bullish and bearish momentum regimes.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has turned positive at 0.0042, while the MACD line remains negative at -0.0057 and the signal line sits at -0.0100. This configuration suggests fading bearish momentum and a developing bullish crossover, although sustained price gains remain unconfirmed. The MACD tracks the relationship between two moving averages, and crossovers between its line and signal line are among the most closely watched momentum signals, which is why the developing crossover needs to confirm before the mixed picture resolves.

On the broader technical structure, a break above $1.45 could open a move toward $1.50, while rejection at current resistance could expose support near $1.35. Taken together, the roadmap keeps the focus on a short list of markers: the $1.25 breakdown trigger, the $1.18 line that would prompt reassessment, and whether momentum indicators confirm before price reaches the levels Egrag Crypto has marked for a potential reversal.