Less than 48 hours remain before the United States midterm elections — the first major election to follow the 2024 presidential race, which sent the crypto market into a frenzy after pro-crypto Donald Trump won. With the odds of a Democratic sweep of the midterms now above 73%, an obvious question follows: would the crypto market stage a similar post-election move if the Republicans fall short? The stakes extend beyond campaign headlines: midterm outcomes determine control of Congress, which in turn shapes the pace of digital-asset legislation and the regulatory climate that US-listed crypto products operate under.

XRP's November track record

The stakes are higher for Ripple. XRP delivered the most explosive rally of the 2024 post-election period, rising more than 280% over the course of November. Nor was that an isolated spike: November has historically been XRP's strongest month, with average returns above 80%. That seasonal record naturally puts the token under the spotlight ahead of the upcoming elections — though seasonal averages describe past behavior rather than a guaranteed repeat, which is why the underlying metrics below carry just as much weight.

On-chain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is exhibiting a balanced picture. The number of transactions is currently hovering around 3.29 million, while transaction volume sits at just under $2.32 billion. Active addresses are another important metric to monitor, since they serve as a proxy for genuine user adoption rather than raw processing throughput: while transactions are being processed, user adoption still needs to increase. In essence, Ripple has been relatively quiet on-chain, and that raises a key question — can XRP's ongoing supply squeeze provide enough bullish pressure to fuel a breakout even as on-chain demand remains subdued?

Escrow unlock meets rising ETF inflows

Ripple's monthly escrow schedule sits at the center of the supply picture. The company kicked off November with its scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock, the latest in its regular release program. Shortly afterward, however, 700 million XRP was re-locked, meaning the net amount actually released into the market is 300 million.

Such re-locking is routine. It is common for a large share of the monthly release to be returned to escrow rather than left in circulation: over the past year, Ripple has unlocked 12 billion XRP while locking 8.4 billion back. As a result, the real amount of new supply reaching the market is far smaller than the headline 1 billion figure — which is why the monthly re-lock ratio is one of the clearest gauges for readers tracking how much new supply actually enters circulation.

Ripple placed the 700 million XRP back into escrow through three transactions. In practical terms, those tokens cannot be released into the market immediately. After the 1 billion XRP unlock, only 300 million XRP now sits outside of escrow, which translates into less supply pressure.

Against this backdrop, XRP's on-chain and market signals take on added weight. According to SoSoValue, XRP ETFs have so far recorded $4.32 million in weekly inflows, surpassing the previous week's $4.25 million and marking the best weekly inflows since mid-September. ETF flows are widely watched because they capture net new money entering the funds, offering a demand gauge that sits alongside on-chain activity rather than replacing it. Combined with recent whale activity, the fact that XRP has been able to hold above $1.20 suggests the asset could be in an early accumulation phase.

With election day approaching, this setup places XRP on the watchlist for a potential post-election rally — provided broader market sentiment turns bullish. In the days ahead, the markers worth tracking include the next weekly ETF flow reading, whether active-address counts begin to climb, and how much of the next monthly escrow release is returned to lock. Until then, the interplay between shrinking net supply, steady ETF inflows, and November's seasonal strength keeps the token in focus.