edgeX Daily Briefing, November 3, 2026: BTC Holds Near $78K Into Midterms
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin slipped 0.4% to about $77,900 after briefly touching $78,700 in Asian trading, holding near $78,000 as U.S. midterm election week began.
- •Binance reported roughly $4.7 billion in net outflows, about 3% of assets under management, since restoring withdrawals, while completing a zero-knowledge proof-of-reserves covering ten assets and replenishing around 95% of the assets hit in the breach.
- •Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to underweight with a $120 price target, reducing its 2027 revenue forecast by 28% and adjusted EBITDA estimate by 47%.
- •Apple beat estimates with $114.5 billion in revenue and $2.10 in earnings per share in CEO John Ternus's first report, even as the Nasdaq fell 1.1% and the semiconductor ETF SOXX dropped nearly 4%.
- •Oil fell more than 7% on Iran-Qatar peace-talk hopes, with Brent settling at $104.77 and WTI at $96.46, while spot gold rebounded 0.7% to $3,900.90 an ounce after Friday's one-year low.
Yesterday’s Biggest Headlines
Crypto Market Watch
1. Bitcoin fell 0.4% to around $77,900 since midnight UTC after briefly touching $78,700 in the Asian morning, holding near the $78,000 handle into midterms week. CoinDesk said ether gained 0.5% while traders looked ahead to Apple’s earnings, Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, and Friday’s jobs report after the weekend reopen shock.
2. Binance said net outflows since it restored withdrawals have risen to about $4.7 billion, or roughly 3% of total assets under management. Bloomberg reported the Monday update as a step up from the earlier reopen tally, while noting the drain still looked contained relative to the exchange’s overall balances after the record hack.
3. Binance completed a new zero-knowledge proof-of-reserves snapshot covering BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, and ZEC, and said it had replenished about 95% of assets hit in last week’s breach. The Block said the exchange plans another reserves snapshot on Wednesday and expects to begin restoring withdrawals for additional networks and assets on Tuesday.
4. Morgan Stanley dropped Coinbase to underweight and lowered its price target to $120, warning that an earnings recovery looks less certain after weaker trading. Yahoo Finance said the bank slashed its 2027 revenue forecast by 28% and its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 47%, citing softer operating trends and a more crowded competitive field.
Equity Market Moves
5. The Nasdaq fell 1.1% Monday as the tech sell-off resumed, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Dow rose 0.4%. Investopedia said the semiconductor ETF SOXX dropped nearly 4% and chip names led the afternoon fade even as oil prices plunged on Iran diplomacy hopes.
6. Apple reported stronger-than-expected fiscal-period revenue in CEO John Ternus’s first earnings report since taking the helm in September. The Guardian said the company earned $30.71 billion, or $2.10 a share, on revenue of $114.5 billion, beating FactSet estimates of $1.99 a share and $113.4 billion and bucking the weaker print from several megacap peers.
Commodities Watch
7. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,900.90 an ounce on Monday, rebounding after Friday’s slide to a one-year low as softer oil tempered inflation concerns. CNBC said December U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,909.70 while traders still priced elevated odds of a December Fed hike.
8. Oil prices fell more than 7% on Monday as Iran-Qatar talks lifted hopes of ending the US-Israeli war with Iran. The Business Times said Brent settled down 7.63% at $104.77 a barrel and WTI fell 7.36% to $96.46 after Iranian officials said the supreme leader had granted the government authorities for peace talks.
Today’s Watchlist
• Whether bitcoin can hold the high-$70,000s through midterms night after Monday’s dip to about $77,900
• Digestion of Binance’s ~$4.7 billion net outflows, Monday PoR snapshot, and Tuesday’s next withdrawal-restore wave
• Midterms night risk appetite after Morgan Stanley’s Coinbase underweight cut
• Digestion of Apple’s Ternus-era beat versus another Nasdaq −1% tech session
• Gold’s hold above ~$3,900 and Brent’s stay soft near $105 if Iran diplomacy headlines keep cooling the war premium
edgeX Market Lens
Monday’s handoff into midterms day was a price-hold session first: bitcoin eased to about $77,900 after an Asian spike near $78,700, keeping the high-$70,000s intact even as Binance’s reopen drain climbed to about $4.7 billion and the exchange posted a fresh zk proof of reserves ahead of more Tuesday restores. Morgan Stanley’s Coinbase downgrade added a listed-crypto equity hit on top of the custody cleanup, while equities stayed two-speed with Nasdaq weakness on AI digestion against Apple’s cleaner Ternus print. Gold clawed off a one-year low and crude’s war premium cracked on diplomacy headlines.
The near-term question is whether election-night flows treat bitcoin’s hold near $78,000 as a containment bid after the Binance reopen drain and Coinbase cut, or as residual risk still waiting on PoR evidence and clearer vote results. Against that, soft oil helps the inflation path but does not erase December hike odds, so any post-vote bounce still faces a policy ceiling. If bitcoin defends the mid-to-high $70,000s, Binance’s Tuesday restore wave stays orderly, and Apple’s beat steadies megacap leadership, risk can attempt a repair. If the $77,000 handle fails, outflows re-accelerate, or Iran talks fail and oil rips back through $110, midterms relief will trade second to security and energy.
For active traders, access matters when bitcoin is holding near $78,000 into the vote, the largest exchange is still proving the reopen, listed crypto equities get a Wall Street cut, and gold and oil gap in opposite directions. edgeX gives traders self-custodial access to crypto, Bitcoin, tokenized stock, and RWA perpetual markets around the clock.
