XRP jumped 6.93% in its most recent daily session, opening at $1.2964 and topping out at $1.4028 before settling near $1.3863—one of its sharpest single-day moves in weeks. The rally comes as Bitcoin claws its way back above $80,000, a recovery that is rippling through the altcoin market and pulling capital toward smaller tokens.

The bigger story, however, is unfolding on the chart. The gap between XRP's 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs)—which weight recent prices more heavily than simple moving averages, making them quicker to react to new price action—on the daily has narrowed to its tightest point since August 2024, reopening the door to a golden cross that could form as soon as mid-October if the current pace holds.

Death Cross Structure, but the Gap Is Closing

XRP's daily chart still shows its 50-day EMA trading below its 200-day EMA—the bearish setup chart watchers call a "death cross" structure. The pattern is considered bearish because it signals to traders that holding the asset in the short term is worse than trading it.

The gap between the two averages, though, has narrowed sharply. It is now the tightest since XRP's last golden cross in August 2024. A golden cross, the opposite of a death cross, occurs when the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term one, and traders widely read it as a signal that bullish momentum has real staying power rather than being just a short-term squeeze. If the current pace of gains holds, that crossover could show up on the daily chart as soon as mid-October.

A Warning From the Shorter Timeframe

There is a wrinkle. On the noisier 4-hour chart, XRP's EMAs already flipped into a golden cross back on August 21. But instead of that gap widening the way a healthy breakout usually plays out, it has been closing again—a warning sign that the daily golden cross is not a lock.

A crossover that fails to hold on a shorter timeframe does not guarantee the same setup confirms on the daily chart. And while shorter timeframes usually set the pace for what analysts later see on longer ones, some experts believe this should not be taken into consideration and that each timeframe should be studied independently.

Bitcoin Rebound Fuels Rotation Into Altcoins

Crypto traders are breathing a little easier. After a rough stretch defined by a Federal Reserve rate hike, the Senate's 49-50 vote against advancing the Clarity Act—a bill that would establish a comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets—and a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin has clawed its way back above $80,000. Rate increases from major central banks tighten global liquidity, and risk assets such as cryptocurrencies have historically struggled in that kind of environment.

Even with the Clarity Act stalling out in the Senate this week, Bitcoin absorbed the news without giving up ground, holding its range and dragging sentiment across the board higher as the week wraps up.

The recovery is showing up clearest in the altcoin space. Bitcoin's dominance—its share of total crypto market value—slipped from 64% to 59%, a sign that traders are rotating profits into smaller tokens. XRP, the cryptocurrency created by the co-founders of payments company Ripple, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of that rotation. That kind of resilience from Bitcoin, combined with capital rotating into altcoins, is exactly the kind of tailwind XRP needs if it is going to keep closing the gap between its moving averages.

Indicator Board Tilts Constructive

The rest of the indicator picture on the daily chart is more encouraging. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures how strong a trend is regardless of direction, currently sits at 35.2—comfortably above the 25 level traders use as the line between a real trend and aimless chop. The positive directional line (DI+) is running above the negative one (DI-), meaning that strength is pointing higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 54.6, squarely in neutral territory on a 0-to-100 scale where readings above 70 are conventionally labeled overbought and below 30 oversold. For a coin that just posted a near-7% daily gain, that is a healthy reading: XRP is not flashing overbought yet and still has room to run before profit-taking becomes a real risk.

XRP's Squeeze Momentum Indicator has also been flashing "on" for 11 straight bars, a sign that volatility has been compressing. Traders generally read that as a setup for a bigger move once it releases. The momentum reading inside the squeeze has been climbing back toward positive territory, hinting the next move is more likely up than down—though that is not guaranteed considering the longer timeframe.

What Traders Are Watching

Two things stand out over the coming weeks: whether Bitcoin's rebound holds up enough for the altcoin rotation to keep going, and whether XRP's 50-day EMA can actually climb above its 200-day counterpart on the daily chart. A confirmed golden cross around mid-October, paired with ADX holding above 25, would go a long way toward validating the current bounce. A failure to hold the $1.38 golden zone, on the other hand, would raise the odds that this is just another squeeze that fizzles out before the crossover ever confirms.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.