French crypto analyst Egrag has released a new technical analysis of XRP, examining the altcoin's price structure through two complementary mathematical lenses. The experienced market chartist applied both arithmetic and geometric averaging to explain XRP's last three bull runs from a purely mathematical standpoint.

Deciphering the 'Alpha Base' Theory on XRP

Egrag was quick to justify why this approach is less speculative than grounding the analysis solely in smoothed moving averages or Fibonacci retracements. "No fantasy numbers. No random targets. Just Math." Even so, historical price data does not guarantee a similar outcome in the future, and cycle-based projections of this kind rest on the assumption that prior market structure will repeat — an assumption that frequently fails in practice, since each crypto cycle has unfolded against different macroeconomic and regulatory backdrops.

#XRP – THE ALPHA BASE & THE NEXT MACRO EXPANSION 🚀: 🟣Cycle 1 → +2,405% 🟣Cycle 2 → +1,002% 🟣Cycle 3 → +1,250% 🟣Arithmetic Average → ~1,552% 🟣Geometric Mean → ~1,444% 🧮No fantasy numbers. No random targets. Just Math Structure > Opinion > Bias pic.twitter.com/NcZA4plXdt — EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 7, 2026

The historical record runs as follows: the three bull cycles delivered rallies of 2,405%, 1,002%, and 1,250%, respectively. That places the cumulative arithmetic average at 1,552%, while the geometric mean comes out to 1,444% — a figure that would hypothetically take XRP's price to roughly $13, according to Egrag. That figure is notable partly because such large percentage gains become progressively harder to achieve as an asset's market capitalization grows; the same multiple applied to a much larger, more mature market implies a far greater inflow of capital than in earlier cycles.

There is also a meaningful distinction between the geometric mean and the cumulative arithmetic average, the analyst argues, with one of the two being more precise. The arithmetic average treats each cycle's gain equally. The geometric mean, by contrast, accounts for compounding across cycles, making it the more conservative of the two figures.

Egrag noted that the geometric mean "measures the average compounded multiplicative expansion across those three cycles," affirming: "I am with the Geometric Mean."

XRP Shows Resilience Alongside Top Altcoins

The bull cycle data on XRP's price is certainly well documented. Still, the fast-moving crypto market remains exposed to price fluctuations driven by external factors, including ongoing political tensions that often push gas and oil prices higher. That pressure does not spare blue-chip altcoins either.

It does, however, serve as a test: as noted by Wintermute in a recent market recap, major-cap altcoins managed to stay afloat even as the chip-driven drawdown in the IT sector rattled traditional stock markets sharply a few weeks ago. That relative stability matters for cycle-based analyses like Egrag's, since projected expansions of the magnitude he outlines generally presuppose an asset that can hold its structure through broader market stress rather than decoupling downward. Whether the current cycle mirrors the geometric-mean trajectory, however, remains an open question that only future price action can answer.