XRP's available supply on Binance has tightened to its scarcest level in four years, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, whose Binance Scarcity Index for the token climbed to approximately 2.1 — its highest reading since 2022. The increase points to reduced XRP availability on the exchange. At the same time, analyst Ali Charts reports growing whale holdings, rising exchange outflows, and increasingly negative social sentiment around the token. Traders remain divided on direction: some are watching a potential breakout above $1.60, while others anticipate a further decline toward $0.99.

Binance Scarcity Index Reaches Highest Level Since 2022

According to CryptoQuant, XRP's Binance Scarcity Index recently climbed to approximately 2.1, marking its highest reading since 2022. The increase follows negative readings throughout September and October 2026, and the index recorded a sharp recovery in recent days that reversed its earlier decline.

The metric also dipped into negative territory on several occasions during 2023 and 2024, before gradually improving throughout parts of 2025 and 2026. Its latest reading reflects a reduction in the amount of XRP available for trading on Binance. Exchange balances draw attention for a simple reason: they represent the slice of supply that can change hands on the venue immediately, unlike tokens moved into self-custody, so a higher scarcity reading describes a thinner pool of XRP directly available to the exchange's traders. Whether the sharp recent recovery holds will itself be a data point to watch in the sessions ahead.

Whale Accumulation Rises as Social Sentiment Weakens

In a post on X, Ali Charts reported that XRP social sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since July. Exchange outflows reached approximately 13.24 million XRP around 01:00 UTC, while whale holdings increased by roughly 60 million XRP over the past week. Ali noted that it could not be established whether whales acquired the supply withdrawn from the exchange. Netflow tallies and top-holder balances are standard on-chain gauges for tracking where supply sits over time, though as that caveat underscores, they capture where tokens move rather than who acquired them.

On the daily chart, XRP appears to be developing a potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation. The right shoulder remains under development, with traders watching the $1.60 neckline. A breakout above that level would confirm the formation and put $2.10 in focus.

Bearish $0.99 Prediction Remains Unsettled

Meanwhile, Santiment Intelligence highlighted a trader's prediction that XRP could fall toward $0.99. Under the terms set by the trader, the prediction would be invalidated if XRP closes above $1.36. XRP has declined approximately 10% since the prediction was made, although the broader cryptocurrency market also fell over the same period.

Wallet data shows that three active short positions among profitable XRP wallets added roughly 2.1 million XRP since late October. Only one of the most profitable wallets holds a long position, and that wallet has not traded since August. On Score, all three traders who opposed the prediction currently remain underwater.

The prediction window closes in under two days, with the market scheduled to resolve on November 19. XRP would need another 17% decline from current levels to reach the $0.99 target. With the settlement falling against a broader market that has also been declining, the scarcity index's trajectory, the $1.60 neckline, and the $1.36 invalidation threshold form the nearest set of checkpoints for both sides of the debate.