Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said China's oil-import demand is set to pick up, describing the current 5-6 million barrel per day gap between China's 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable — a framing that implies he expects Chinese buying to reaccelerate from current levels. Hardy made the remarks at the APPEC energy conference in Singapore, the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, an annual industry gathering that regularly draws trading-house executives and has become a fixture for headline-making demand and supply outlooks.

The China call stands out against a broader demand picture that Hardy characterised as softer. He expects global oil demand to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared with 2025. Taken together, the comments point to a market narrative of squeezed supply chains running up against demand that could reaccelerate out of China even as broader global consumption softens — a tension traders watch closely because diverging regional demand patterns shape where crude cargoes are priced and routed.

On the supply side, Hardy quantified the scale of disruption still running through Middle East shipping lanes. He said Bab el-Mandeb strait disruptions have affected 2-3 million barrels per day of Saudi oil exports. Around 10 million barrels per day of crude and products are still being exported from the Middle East overall, with a comparable volume of oil and products continuing to exit the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing conflict — figures that quantify just how much Middle East flow remains exposed. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints, handling roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption in normal times, which is why any sustained disruption there is treated as a major risk by physical traders and analysts alike.

Hardy also noted that global product stockpiles are still drawing, a sign that consumption of refined products continues to outpace supply even as crude flows remain disrupted.

On Russia, he said the country imported between 500,000 and 600,000 tons of gasoline per month over the summer — a notable data point for a country that was historically a significant fuel exporter, and one traders track as an indicator of strain in Russia's refining sector under sanctions and drone-strike disruptions.

Hardy's comments carry weight given Vitol's position. Vitol is the world's largest independent energy trading company, buying, selling and transporting crude oil, refined products, natural gas and other commodities across global markets rather than producing or refining them itself. Privately held and headquartered in Geneva and Rotterdam, the firm trades several million barrels of oil equivalent a day, giving its executives, including Hardy, an unusually direct vantage point on physical trade flows, freight patterns and regional demand shifts — insight that often surfaces in market-moving commentary at conferences such as APPEC.

In effect, Vitol's CEO is describing a market where Middle East barrels are getting harder to move and China's buying has further to run. What to watch next is whether the projected Chinese import recovery materialises in official customs data and whether Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb flows remain at current levels — the two variables Hardy's outlook hinges on.