It is US jobs day, and traders are entering the North American session with a mixed dollar, modestly lower Treasury yields and firmer US stock futures. Canada's employment report is not due until next week, leaving today's focus squarely on the US labor market.

The September jobs report is expected to show a gain of 90,000 jobs, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% on the month.

Markets are pricing roughly a 21% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. A stronger jobs report, particularly if accompanied by stronger wage growth, could push those expectations higher, while a softer print could reduce the urgency to tighten further.

For traders, the headline payroll number is only part of the story. Revisions to previous months, the unemployment rate and wages will help determine whether the initial market reaction has staying power.

Dollar mixed ahead of payrolls

The dollar is lower against the JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD and NZD. It is higher against the CAD and modestly higher against the EUR, although the euro's change rounds to unchanged at the displayed precision.

The Swiss franc has posted the largest gain against the dollar as it extends its correction, breaking below its 200-hour moving average and an upward-sloping trendline. The question for the pair is whether it can stay below the 200-hour MA, now at 0.8291. Holding below would put 0.82167 in view — the 38.2% retracement of the trend move up from the August 20 low.

The Canadian dollar is the weakest of the majors, with USDCAD remaining above its 100-hour moving average. Canada's employment report next week will give the loonie its next domestic data point.

Today's changes:

• EURUSD: 1.1241, essentially unchanged at the displayed precision
• USDJPY: 157.77, down 0.19%
• GBPUSD: 1.3209, up 0.08%
• USDCHF: 0.8282, down 0.30%
• USDCAD: 1.4240, up 0.15%
• AUDUSD: 0.6937, up 0.12%
• NZDUSD: 0.5609, up 0.11%

The mixed performance follows a session in which the dollar index briefly reached its highest level since May 2025, near 102, according to MUFG's assessment covered by InvestingLive. Today's jobs report becomes the next test of that dollar strength.

US stock futures point higher

At 7:40 AM ET, futures implied gains across the major indices:

• Dow: up 208 points
• S&P 500: up 36 points
• Nasdaq 100: up 170 points

Lower oil and the continued easing in Treasury yields provide a more supportive backdrop ahead of the employment report, although the 8:30 AM ET release could quickly change that setup.

Treasury yields edge lower after yesterday's sharp fall

US yields are modestly lower across the key maturities:

• 2-year: 4.7809%, down 0.61 basis points
• 5-year: 4.9926%, down 1.24 basis points
• 10-year: 5.2242%, down 0.98 basis points
• 30-year: 5.5989%, down 0.41 basis points

Today's moves are small compared with yesterday's sharp decline. The question is whether the jobs report reinforces that move or gives yields a reason to reverse higher.

Oil falls as Europe discusses emergency reserve releases

Crude oil is sharply lower, with the supplied WTI futures quote at $89.32, down $3.55, or 3.82%.

Reuters reports that France has proposed releasing 50 million barrels of diesel from European reserves, alongside 50 million barrels of crude oil across International Energy Agency members. The discussions follow US pressure on Europe to release fuel inventories and the threat of a US diesel export ban. These remain proposals rather than an agreed release. Whether the talks advance to a coordinated release is the next development for energy markets to track.

The potential additional supply offers some relief for energy markets. For the broader economy, sustained lower fuel prices would help ease inflation pressure, although emergency stock releases do not resolve the underlying supply disruptions.

Elsewhere in the market snapshot:

• Spot gold: $4,183.11, up $5.73, or 0.14%
• Silver: $61.02, up 0.13%
• Copper: $6.5685, up 0.47%
• Bitcoin: $86,425, up $1,572, or 1.85%

Eurozone inflation rises to 3.8%

Preliminary September inflation for the eurozone came in above expectations:

• Headline CPI: 3.8% year-on-year versus 3.6% expected and 3.2% previously
• Core CPI: 2.5% year-on-year versus 2.5% expected and 2.4% previously

Energy remains the main driver, with prices up 18.8% from a year earlier, while services inflation also increased to 3.2% from 3.0%. For the European Central Bank, the concern is whether the energy shock spreads more broadly into underlying inflation. Headline inflation approaching 4% keeps pressure on policymakers, even as higher bond yields tighten financial conditions. The energy squeeze behind the headline beat is the same pressure the European reserve-release proposals are meant to relieve, tying the eurozone's inflation path closely to how those discussions evolve. Further details are available in InvestingLive's Eurozone inflation report.

European equities are nevertheless trading higher:

• Germany DAX: 25,223.84, up 1.14%
• France CAC 40: 7,888.32, up 0.68%
• UK FTSE 100: 10,454.89, up 0.26%
• Spain IBEX 35: 19,052.79, up 0.25%
• Italy FTSE MIB:50,313.08, up 0.15%

The North American calendar

At 8:30 AM ET, the US September employment report is released:

• Nonfarm payrolls: 89,000 expected versus 162,000 previously
• Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected versus 4.1% previously
• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: 0.3% expected versus 0.3% previously

At 10:00 AM ET:

• Factory orders: 0.1% expected versus 0.9% previously
• Dallas Fed President Logan is scheduled to speak

Logan's appearance comes 90 minutes after the payrolls release, adding a scheduled Fed voice to the post-data session.

Canada's jobs report is due next week.

Let the price action confirm the story

Jobs reports can produce a fast move in one direction followed by a reversal as traders digest wages, unemployment and revisions. That makes technical levels particularly useful: a break is a start, and staying beyond the level is what gives buyers or sellers more control.

The morning technical review examines the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD — outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either buyers or sellers more control.