The US dollar is mixed as North American traders come in for the day, with the major currency pairs holding in relatively narrow ranges ahead of the US jobs report due at 8:30 AM ET. The monthly employment report is one of the most consistently market-moving items on the US economic calendar, because it feeds directly into the Federal Reserve's dual mandate on employment and inflation, which is why the tight pre-data ranges in the majors often resolve sharply once the numbers land. The EURUSD has traded in a 16-pip range between 1.1617 and 1.1633 and is little changed. The USDJPY has seen more movement, trading in a 68-pip range between 155.53 and 156.21, with the dollar gaining 0.27% against the yen. The GBPUSD is up 0.09% within a 26-pip range between 1.3523 and 1.3549.

From a technical perspective, the narrow ranges leave the major pairs waiting for the next push. The employment report has the potential to trigger breaks of the session extremes, which would give traders their next directional clues. In the accompanying video, the three major currency pairs are reviewed and the key technical levels in play are outlined: what will shift the bias, what the current risks are, and what the targets look like. Traders who do not know these levels and solely react to the data risk selling against support or buying against resistance, which is often detrimental to trading results. Be aware and be prepared.

So what is expected in the US jobs report? Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 56,000, with most forecasts clustered between 30,000 and 70,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.3% for the month and 3.0% year-over-year (full forecast distribution). A result near expectations may generate a limited reaction, as the Fed remains more focused on inflation and next week's CPI report, which is the next major data point markets will be positioned for after today. However, a significant upside surprise could reverse some of yesterday's Waller-driven market moves, while a notably weaker report could extend the decline in US yields and the US dollar.

US Treasury yields are mixed ahead of the jobs report, with shorter maturities moving higher while the long end remains little changed:

• 2-year yield: 4.349%, up 1.5 basis points
• 5-year yield: 4.518%, up 0.9 basis points
• 10-year yield: 4.764%, up 0.2 basis points
• 30-year yield: 5.241%, down 0.2 basis points

The modest rise in shorter-term yields points to some caution ahead of the employment data, while the relatively steady long end leaves the yield curve with a slight flattening bias. Because short-term yields are especially sensitive to Fed policy expectations, the 2-year's move higher reflects positioning around the data and the rate path rather than shifts in longer-term inflation expectations.

In the premarket for US stocks, futures are implying a mixed open with:

• Dow: down 63 points
• S&P: up 1.29%
• Nasdaq: up 105 points

In other overnight news, the RBNZ raised rates for a second consecutive meeting this week but signaled that its next hike is more likely in December than October. Swaps price only a 31% chance of an October move, compared with near certainty by December. Policymakers still see upside inflation risks but want time to assess the impact of the recent hikes (full article). For the NZD, the continued tightening bias provides some support, but the reduced likelihood of an October hike removes a near-term hawkish catalyst.

The main Middle East development overnight was continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Only four commodity vessels were observed crossing on Thursday, well below the 10-day average of 15, as the US-Iran conflict and blockade continue to restrict energy flows. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was also below average. The reduced shipping activity is keeping supply concerns elevated and helping oil prices remain on course for their strongest weekly gain since mid-July. Roughly a fifth of global oil liquids consumption transits Hormuz in normal conditions, which is why interruptions there translate quickly into energy price risk rather than only regional shipping delays.