The US dollar is mixed as North American traders enter the session. The greenback is trading higher against the EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, and NZD, while it is moving lower against the JPY and AUD.

The biggest moves are against the NZD and CHF. NZDUSD is down 0.35% on a stronger dollar, while USDCHF is up 0.34%, also reflecting dollar strength. The AUD is the strongest of the major currencies against the greenback, with AUDUSD rising 0.29%. Moves against the EUR, GBP, and JPY remain relatively modest.

The low-to-high trading ranges are mostly contained:

• EURUSD: 16 pips
• USDJPY: 37 pips
• GBPUSD: 33 pips
• USDCHF: 34 pips
• USDCAD: 42 pips
• AUDUSD: 58 pips
• NZDUSD: 35 pips

In today’s Kickstart video, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. For each pair, I outline the technical bias, the risk-defining levels, and the targets traders should watch as the new trading day unfolds.

That setup matters because the session is carrying multiple crosscurrents: a firmer dollar versus some peers, still-contained intraday ranges, and a heavy calendar of US data and central-bank commentary that could keep FX price action reactive rather than directional. Markets remain focused on developments in the Middle East. Iran and Oman are reportedly advancing discussions over a temporary commercial shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, including mine-clearing operations. However, there is no broader US-Iran peace agreement, with negotiations over a permanent settlement still stalled. Even so, the reports raised hopes for improved oil flows and reduced the immediate risk of another military escalation.

US equity futures are mixed in pre-market trading:

• Dow: +19 points
• S&P 500: -6.25 points
• Nasdaq: -68 points

Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter earnings after today’s close, with results expected around 4:20 PM ET and the call at 5:00 PM ET.

• Revenue guidance: $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%
• Revenue estimate: $92.27 billion
• EPS estimate: $2.09
• Year-ago revenue/EPS: $46.74 billion/$1.05

The headline numbers will matter, but the bigger focus will be on third-quarter guidance, gross margins, Blackwell Ultra execution, and China. With expectations already high, simply beating second-quarter estimates may not be enough; the company will need to convince investors that its rapid growth can continue.

Overnight, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel reinforced the central bank’s hawkish stance. She warned that policymakers must act early to prevent persistent price pressures from feeding into wages and broader inflation. Schnabel said she expects inflation to remain above the ECB’s 2% target for an extended period and emphasized the need to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored.

She also pointed to improving eurozone growth and elevated natural gas prices, which are up more than 130% this year, as risks that could keep inflation higher for longer. Schnabel said the extent of policy tightening will ultimately depend on incoming economic data.

Her comments follow reports from ECB sources yesterday indicating that the central bank is likely to raise rates at its September meeting. Markets are currently pricing around 40 basis points of tightening by year-end and roughly a 95% probability of a September rate increase. Schnabel is among the ECB’s more hawkish policymakers, and her remarks add further weight to expectations of a September hike.

In the UK, the CBI retail survey showed conditions deteriorated sharply in August, with the retail sales balance falling to -48 from -26. Retailers reported weak demand, worsening sentiment, and continued reductions in investment and staffing plans. Sales are expected to remain under pressure in September, although the pace of decline is forecast to moderate.

In Switzerland, the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rose to +12.1 in August from +10.0 in July, marking a second consecutive month in positive territory. The improvement suggests growing optimism about the Swiss economic and financial-market outlook despite the US-Iran conflict and elevated oil prices. The report is unlikely to alter the SNB’s policy outlook, with rates expected to remain unchanged for an extended period.

The North American session is heavy on data, with most of the key US releases due at 8:30 AM ET:

• Personal income: +0.2% estimate versus +0.2% prior
• Personal consumption expenditures: +0.1% estimate versus +0.3% prior
• Core PCE month over month: +0.2% estimate versus +0.1% prior
• Core PCE year over year: +3.3% estimate versus +3.3% prior
• Headline PCE month over month: +0.1% estimate versus -0.1% prior
• Headline PCE year over year: +3.6% estimate versus +3.7% prior
• Durable goods orders: +0.5% estimate versus +0.3% prior
• Durable goods excluding transportation: +0.6% estimate versus +0.6% prior
• Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft: +0.9% estimate versus +0.9% prior

The second estimate of second-quarter GDP will also be released:

• GDP: +1.5% estimate, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, versus +1.6% in the first quarter
• GDP sales: +2.2% estimate, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, versus +1.5% previously
• Consumer spending: preliminary estimate of +3.2% versus +1.4% previously
• GDP price index: +6.2% estimate versus the preliminary estimate of +6.3% and +3.5% previously
• Core PCE prices: +3.4% estimate, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, versus +4.4% previously
• Headline PCE prices: +5.1% estimate, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, versus +4.5% previously
• Corporate profits: preliminary estimate of +0.5% versus -0.4% previously

At 10:30 AM ET, the weekly EIA inventory data will be released:

• Crude oil inventories: +597,000 barrels expected versus +4.405 million previously
• Distillate inventories: -1.570 million expected versus -1.530 million previously
• Gasoline inventories: -670,000 expected versus +688,000 previously

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is also scheduled to speak at 11:45 AM ET, followed by SNB policymaker Antoine Martin at 12:15 PM ET.