Markets were quiet in a slow, rangebound session as traders waited for further US-Iran developments ahead of the Jackson Hole event. With few new catalysts in Europe, attention stayed on the next round of US data and central bank signals that could help define the near-term policy backdrop.

The day’s data releases were limited. In Switzerland, investor sentiment improved further in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July. That was the second consecutive month in positive territory and the strongest reading since early 2025, pointing to growing optimism about Switzerland’s economic outlook.

In the UK, the CBI survey showed a sharp deterioration in retail conditions in August. The retail sales balance fell to -48% from -26%, with retailers reporting weak demand, worsening sentiment, and continued cuts to investment and staffing plans. Sales are expected to remain weak in September, although the pace of decline is forecast to slow. Retail price inflation is also expected to accelerate. The CBI called for business rates reform and lower employer taxes to help restore confidence in the sector.

From the European Central Bank, Isabel Schnabel said the central bank must act early to prevent inflation from feeding into wages and broader prices, adding that inflation is likely to remain above the 2% target for an extended period. She said the eurozone economy is gaining momentum and that any further tightening would remain data-dependent. Schnabel also flagged the natural gas situation as a risk that could reignite inflationary pressures, underscoring how energy developments remain relevant for the inflation outlook.

In the US session, the focus will be on the PCE price index and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP. The PCE release often draws attention, but it is usually not a major market mover because it can be inferred in advance from CPI and PPI data. Core PCE is expected to rise 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior reading, while the month-over-month measure is seen at 0.2% versus 0.1% previously.

The market is currently pricing in a 65% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. That pricing will continue to be shaped by any potential US-Iran deal, the Jackson Hole event, and the next CPI report, which together remain the main checkpoints for confirming whether recent data and policy messaging keep the outlook steady.