The United States and China have yet to agree on whether to extend their tariff ceasefire, which is set to expire on November 10, 2026. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the continued deadlock in a Bloomberg Television interview on September 21, saying Washington is open to extending the truce by three to six months, while cautioning against expectations of a quick resolution.

New York talks productive but empty-handed

Preparatory discussions were held on September 20 in New York, bringing together US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The meeting was intended to smooth the path ahead of a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for September 24.

US officials described the conversations as productive, but acknowledged that no major deliverables came out of them.

The current truce, assembled through a series of agreements between 2025 and 2026, caps tariffs on both sides at approximately 20%n

The sticking points

Several issues remain unresolved as the deadline approaches. The most significant is critical minerals. China committed to delivering rare-earth elements and other strategically important materials, but Greer stated bluntly that Beijing's compliance is "not up to par." The stakes of that shortfall are broad: rare earths are essential inputs for products ranging from electric vehicles and smartphones to defense systems, and China's position as the dominant global supplier of both mined and refined output makes these commitments a core test of the truce.

The two sides have also been discussing reciprocal tariff cuts covering roughly $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods. On the purchase side, Beijing is expected to ramp up buying of US agricultural products and Boeing aircraft. Reported commitments include 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually — a nod to China's historical role as the largest foreign buyer of the US crop — and more than 200 Boeing planes.

What is at stake

If the November 10 deadline passes without an extension, the default outcome is a reversion to higher tariff rates. A renewed tariff conflict would affect multinational companies with significant China exposure, particularly in technology, industrials, and consumer goods. The semiconductor supply chain, already strained by years of export controls and reshoring efforts, would face additional pressure if rare-earth supplies tighten further.

Boeing has a particular stake in the negotiations. China is one of the world's largest single aviation markets, and an order for more than 200 aircraft from Chinese carriers would represent a significant boost to its backlog, while losing the potential deal to Airbus — which has been aggressively courting Chinese airlines — would be a competitive blow extending well beyond the current trade cycle.

Greer emphasized that both sides want to keep talking. The Trump-Xi summit on September 24 could provide political momentum for a breakthrough. With the clock ticking toward November, the difference between a three-month extension and no extension at all could move billions in market value within hours, given the exposure of trade-sensitive sectors. The observable markers in the meantime are concrete: whether China's rare-earth deliveries improve, and whether the reported soybean and aircraft commitments harden into firm orders before the truce runs out.