The UK Conservative Party has claimed that households could save around £540 a year after 2030 if net zero regulations are scrapped, pledging to make energy as cheap as possible.

A report published by the centre-right think tank Onward and backed by the Tories put the cost of net zero at an extra £540 per household per year between 2030 and 2050. The headline figure is a total divided across bill payers rather than a forecast of what any individual household would see knocked off its bill.

The pledge targets a framework the Conservatives themselves legislated: Britain's net zero commitment is enshrined in the Climate Change Act, which was amended in 2019 under a Conservative government to require net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, making any rollback the dismantling of a legally binding target rather than a tweak to policy.

According to the Onward report, a full focus on net zero by 2050 would cost the UK roughly £320bn between 2030 and 2050, a sum spread across two decades and covering around 29m households. Onward's own modelling of an actual bill puts the reduction closer to £200 a year by 2035 for a household with average consumption, rising to £290 if further measures — such as moving the Warm Home Discount and other energy costs into general taxation, and cutting debt-related costs — are also adopted.

The study, titled Firm Foundations, drew on modelling by the consultancy Transira Energy and compares the likely trajectory of current policy against an "alternative policy pathway" built around demand and supply.

Most of the savings identified between 2030 and 2050 stem from network spending reforms that would ensure supply sources are closer to power lines, along with the removal of carbon taxes. Those carbon costs are currently levied on UK power generators through the UK Emissions Trading Scheme and feed into wholesale electricity prices. The analysis also rests on assumptions that nuclear energy will provide further electricity generation without inflated costs. Researchers at the Conservative-aligned think tank said the changes through 2050 would still leave the overall energy system 80 per cent clean.

Badenoch backs plan to end net zero

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said the "serious plan to deal with climate change" involved focusing on results and "not simply setting targets and congratulating ourselves afterwards".

"This report shows what a common sense approach looks like. Unlike Labour, who are wedded to the old failing plans; or Reform, who still don't believe climate change is happening, the Conservatives will protect our environment, protect our energy security and make energy cheaper," she said.

Badenoch has previously said Britain cannot meet the 2050 deadline, and the report shows how the party intends to frame the cost of the transition, with the next general election due by 2029 and Reform UK campaigning to scrap net zero altogether.

Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho is set to deliver a press conference on Wednesday detailing the cost of renewables.

She will tell audience members: "Two years after Ed Miliband cancelled the true costing of renewables that I started, Onward have stepped in to finish the job.

"This is the single most detailed costing of the electricity system that has been produced in British politics.

"The findings are remarkable… It's the work that should have been done by the government but has not been because they are more driven by ideology than evidence."

Miliband's department is separately pressing ahead with a target to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030, set out in its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan published at the end of 2024, which the government argues will lower bills by shifting generation away from gas.

Trade-offs acknowledged

The report is explicit about some trade-offs. It states that 524m tonnes of cumulative carbon emissions would be produced, implying a cost of more than £600 per tonne for removing the last tranche of unabated gas — over twice the highest carbon price the energy department currently models for 2050.

It also concedes greater exposure to gas price shocks, estimating that a 250 per cent spike in 2040 would add £6bn to fuel costs. That vulnerability has recent precedent: after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent wholesale gas prices soaring, the government capped typical household bills at £2,500 a year under the Energy Price Guarantee, at a cost of tens of billions of pounds to the Treasury. Researchers said policymakers would "have to decide" how to lower costs through other taxes.

Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said the plan backed by the Tories would "tie Britain to the fossil fuel rollercoaster and keep bills higher for families".

She added: "Labour is investing in more clean energy jobs, cutting tax on electricity bills to give families breathing space this winter and we're taking action to tackle the climate crisis and bring down bills for good. Kemi Badenoch would put jobs at risk and increase bills."

Source: City AM via OilPrice.com