If Gianni Infantino's plan to carve out the commercial rights to Fifa events, including the World Cup, is to be stopped early, the pushback will likely need to be led by Uefa, as it has been in previous clashes over similar moves.

Uefa has repeatedly proven to be the only football body with enough influence to check Infantino's more ambitious proposals, including Fifa's earlier attempts to spin off commercial vehicles, move to biennial World Cups and, depending on whom one believes, the European Super League.

In 2018, when Infantino tried to advance plans to raise $25bn from investors including SoftBank to expand the Club World Cup and launch a Global Nations League, Uefa's firm resistance ensured the plan never even reached a vote.

Three years later, Uefa's angry response to the launch of the European Super League, combined with political pressure and a wave of fan opposition, quickly ended the project. Infantino has never acknowledged it, but some believe he privately supported the breakaway.

Then, in 2022, when Infantino entertained the idea of staging World Cups every two years instead of every four, Uefa's refusal — together with South American governing body Conmebol — made the proposal impossible to advance.

The key leverage was the threat of a boycott by Uefa nations. "We can decide not to play in it," Uefa president Aleksander Ceferin told The Times. "As far as I know the South Americans are on the same page, so good luck with a World Cup like that."

Fifa needs Uefa more than it would like to admit

The reality is that Fifa depends on Uefa more than it would like to admit. Europe supplied three of the four semi-finalists at this summer's World Cup and has produced five of the last six tournament winners. A World Cup without England, France, Spain and Germany is difficult to imagine.

Europe is also central to Fifa's finances. Nearly a third of Fifa's media rights revenue comes from Europe, making it the largest contributor to the tournament's four-year commercial cycle.

Uefa itself generates more revenue than Fifa — about $20bn compared with $15bn per four-year cycle — largely because it is home to the world's biggest and most popular clubs, which compete in the Champions League.

That imbalance has long been something Infantino has tried to address since taking office a decade ago, after the downfall of his predecessor Sepp Blatter, and it helps explain his expansionist approach to Fifa competitions.

His latest move can be viewed in that context too, although it has also been criticised as a brazen power and cash grab designed to benefit Infantino and allies in Donald Trump's inner circle.

The current push also comes at a particularly sensitive moment for global football governance. Fifa is preparing for the expanded 48-team World Cup in 2026, to be hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and has scheduled a revamped, 32-team Club World Cup for the summer of 2025. Both tournaments dramatically increase the volume of top-level international football and, with it, the commercial opportunities attached to Fifa's rights portfolio.

The proposal also fits a broader pattern of private capital seeking direct stakes in the football economy. Private equity firms have already invested in leagues across Europe — CVC Capital Partners took a stake in La Liga's media business, and similar deals have been explored in Germany and France. Infantino's rights plan would extend that logic to the international game, potentially giving outside investors a foothold in the World Cup itself.

Uefa is not without fault. It has faced its own criticism over governance, financial regulation and commercialisation. It has expanded the Champions League and introduced musical performances at its final.

But in the absence of meaningful checks and balances at Fifa — despite the governance reforms adopted after the 2015 corruption scandal that toppled Blatter and led to criminal charges against numerous football officials — Uefa again appears to be the body most likely to act as football's guardian. Member nations are due to meet today to discuss a possible boycott threat, the same nuclear option that has worked before.