With candidates less than 100 days from the 2026 midterm elections, longtime Democratic strategist Andrew Bates said two major issues are resonating with voters: the difference between the economy voters were promised in 2024 and the one they are experiencing in 2026, and concerns that Republicans have abused power in ways that worsened the problems they pledged to fix.

Bates made the remarks in a Monday conversation with Greg Sargent of The New Republic, discussing how President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign promises are being assessed by voters two years later. During that campaign, Trump pledged to lower inflation, reduce grocery prices and bring down gas prices. He also argued that higher tariffs would help reduce the national debt because other countries would pay them.

The debate is politically significant because midterm elections often become a referendum on the party in power, especially when voters are focused on household costs. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, and businesses can pass some of those costs along to consumers or absorb them in ways that affect supply chains, margins and hiring decisions.

According to Bates, voters have since come to see those claims differently after living with the effects of the policies.

“Trump was promising that immediately, quote-unquote, he would lower costs, and tariffs were a critical way he said he would do this. Then people lived through them,” Bates told Sargent in the New Republic podcast. “And now, like you were talking about, because prices went up across the board, they’re extremely unpopular, and more tariffs are the opposite of what voters want, including a lot of Republican voters.”

Bates said Democrats across the party’s ideological spectrum have been united in criticizing tariffs as harmful to ordinary people. He also argued that the revenue generated by the tariffs is being used to help finance tax breaks for “billionaires and monopolies,” which he described as unpopular as well.

“So it’s something that Democrats, wherever they fall within the ideological spectrum of the party, have been unified in calling out as something that is going to hurt everyday people,” Bates said. “It’s also powerful that the tariff revenue goes to fund the tax breaks for billionaires and monopolies, which are also very unpopular.”

Trump also presented himself as “pro-worker” and “pro-Made in America,” but Bates said manufacturing jobs have declined under his leadership because of the tariffs.

“And in 2024, Republicans were saying, this is how we bring manufacturing back,” Bates said. “But now people have lived through the opposite. It’s also been very painful for people in rural areas.”

Bates said farmers have been hit hard because tariffs have increased the cost of farm equipment, while Trump’s trade war has alienated international buyers of American goods and agricultural products. Trade disputes can be especially consequential for rural economies because farmers often depend on both imported inputs and overseas markets for sales.

“And that’s a huge hit to farming communities, because over a fifth of American crops are usually exported,” he said.

Sargent said Trump may not recognize the political risk, but some top White House allies have made clear that tariffs do not offer Republicans a winning message. He cited two allies who described the problem to Politico.

“If it’s not focused on affordability, it’s not helpful,” one Republican said, according to the report. Politico reported that tariffs would be reflexively viewed by voters as a “bad thing.” Another Republican told the outlet, “Any conversation about tariffs, unless it’s reducing them, is a bad conversation for Republicans.”

Bates said the tariff debate is unfolding alongside a broader problem for Republicans: voters have watched “this crowd abuse their power in ways that make all the problems they voted to end worse.”

“And you can’t get away from it,” he said. “You’re reminded every single time you go to the grocery store, or every time you need to put gas in your car.”

Bates pointed not only to tariffs, but also to the war in Iran, which he said has raised gas prices; alleged abuse by ICE agents; and Trump’s lavish spending on rebuilding parts of Washington, historic landmarks and hundreds of millions of dollars on a “maxed out” private presidential plane that only Trump will use and leave the White House with.

His argument ties economic frustration to conduct in office, a combination Democrats are likely to keep emphasizing as voters decide whether Republican incumbents have delivered on the promises that helped return Trump to power in 2024.

“And you’re offended when you see folks in Washington making billions of dollars personally off of you, talking about how one of their highest priorities is building a ballroom, and that they don’t think about everyday people’s finances—that’s a direct quote,” Bates said. “And especially when your representative, who’s supposed to fight for your community’s interests and for your interests, is instead selling out to those people and becoming a more corrupt establishment than anything that has existed before in our lifetimes—that’s the sort of thing that can bring about a sea change in public opinion. And it’s why you are seeing the most anti-incumbent mood since at least 2006.”