President Donald Trump is losing his hold on the rural voters who once backed him in droves, with a new Fox News analysis documenting a collapse in Republican support across the heartland just two weeks before the midterm elections.

A Fox News Power Rankings analysis released Tuesday found that fewer than half of rural voters say they plan to vote for the GOP in the November elections. In 2024, nearly two-thirds of them supported Trump — a double-digit swing in the bloc that has long anchored the Republican coalition, and one with outsized stakes because rural states and districts account for many of the seats the party relies on in Congress.

Economic strain sits at the center of the erosion in communities Republicans could previously rely on for support. Fox News contributor Rémy Numa reported that fewer than one-quarter of rural voters believe the economy is performing well, while only 28 percent said job opportunities in their communities are good or excellent.

The rising cost of living emerged as a leading source of concern: 19 percent of respondents identified inflation-driven price hikes as their biggest economic worry, while rising gas prices and energy bills are also weighing heavily on voters' minds.

With voter dissatisfaction climbing, Fox News reported that once safely red congressional districts in Ohio and Iowa are now up for grabs, with polls showing the races within the margin of error. Trump swept those districts by double digits; they are now vulnerable amid his unpopular second term. Because House and Senate majorities are assembled seat by seat, these margin-of-error contests are the clearest place to watch whether the polling shift converts into ballots when polls close on Election Day. A similar shift is underway in Wyoming, a state where Trump secured more than 70 percent of the vote and where the seat is now considered competitive.

Some Republican candidates are attempting to salvage their campaigns by distancing themselves from the president. Republican congressional candidate Chuck Gray, for one, has run television ads that forgo any mention of Trump or the GOP — a reflection of how the president's standing has become a calculation candidates now make race by race.

The report also notes that independent candidates are running for Senate against Republicans in four rural-heavy states: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota. They are seizing on voter concerns by campaigning on fighting corruption, banning lobbying and congressional term limits. Their presence in states the GOP would ordinarily bank on adds another variable for election night, and their vote share will be one of the numbers worth tracking as results come in.

The gubernatorial contests have put the GOP on edge. Fox News downgraded the party's prospects in Florida from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Republican Rep. Byron Donalds still leads former Democratic Rep. David Jolly, but concern persists about declining Hispanic support for the GOP candidate. One survey noted that Trump's support in the Hispanic community has fallen by 12 percent.

In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen also faces a tougher re-election campaign amid dissatisfaction with state budget cuts and the presence of independent and third-party candidates.

Taken together, the new figures show that Trump's once-strong support in rural areas has faltered dramatically, leaving GOP candidates to pay the price.

This report was originally published by Alternet.