President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans once viewed redistricting as their path to staving off a midterm wipeout, but a new report from MS NOW finds the plan has crumbled, forcing the party to play defense in seats once considered "safe." Redistricting normally happens only once a decade, after each census, so the mid-decade map redraws of the past year carried unusual weight: with all 435 House seats on the ballot this cycle and 218 needed for a majority, a small cluster of districts can decide which party controls the chamber.

"When Republicans redrew congressional districts in a number of states over the last year, they hoped their efforts would maximize GOP House seats and minimize the number of contests where Democrats could feasibly win," the report detailed. "But now, with just weeks to go before Election Day, Republicans are suddenly finding a host of deep red districts in play — and President Donald Trump's political operation is now spending millions to defend Republicans in a dozen districts that the GOP redrew to favor Trump by at least nine percentage points."

Reviewing official records, MS NOW reported that a new Trump-affiliated PAC, Never Go Back, has already spent $6 million on GOP races in districts the president carried by double digits in the 2024 election. The report described the spending as the latest sign that the midterms "are shaping up to be a potential disaster for the GOP," alongside polling that consistently shows recently redrawn districts "don't appear to be safe." Independent expenditures of this kind — spending by outside groups to support or oppose candidates without coordinating with their campaigns — must be disclosed to the FEC, giving the public a running account of where each side sees exposure. Seats a presidential nominee carried by double digits are ordinarily regarded as safe enough to win without outside help, which is why defensive money arriving in them tends to draw attention.

The biggest investment among the ruby red redrawn districts so far is in Florida's 25th Congressional District, where Federal Election Commission filings show No Going Back PAC spending more than $2 million on a combination of TV ads and mailers. There, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is facing off against Republican Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton. While Florida's 25th District backed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by approximately 5 points, Florida Republicans redrew the map to turn the area into a Trump +9.2 district. Despite the new lines, Moskowitz looks like he could pull off the upset: on Tuesday, Fox News moved its rating of the race from "Toss-up" to "Lean D."

"The American way of life has become unaffordable," Moskowitz said in a recent statement. "The Trump administration knows this, so their PAC will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to run ads to change the topic. But the bill always comes due at the end of the month."

Other filings show that Trump-affiliated groups have poured more than $1 million into the race in Texas's 35th Congressional District, which broke for Harris by more than 30 points before gerrymandering redrew it to Trump +10.

No Going Back PAC is investing more than $500,000 in a TV ad in Texas's 34th Congressional District, which was redrawn into a Trump +10 seat. The group is also spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on campaign mailers and other voter outreach across districts including Alabama's 2nd at Trump +14.3, Florida's 22nd at Trump +10.6, North Carolina's 1st at Trump +11.6, and Ohio's 15th at Trump +10. With Election Day weeks away, the FEC's public expenditure filings and race-rating updates will serve as the clearest running indicators of whether the defensive outlay keeps spreading.

"By lighting their money on fire almost entirely in defensive districts and in places Trump won by double digits two years ago, MAGA Inc. is signaling that vulnerable House Republicans are in deep trouble and poised to lose," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton told MS NOW, adding that the GOP appears to be "running scared."

This article is based on reporting by MS NOW and was originally published by Alternet.