WASHINGTON — The Republican Party's heavy losses in this week's midterm elections have left President Donald Trump politically diminished at home, confronting tougher legislative oversight and heightened scrutiny of his agenda. On foreign policy, however, he could remain unbowed.

Even as Democratic lawmakers prepare to rein in the Republican president when they assume control of Congress, Mr. Trump will retain broad latitude to pursue his objectives on the world stage — from Iran and Israel to Ukraine and China — during his final two years in office.

The central question, analysts say, is whether Mr. Trump will feel chastened by his party's poor showing in Tuesday's midterm elections or emboldened to take more dramatic steps to shape his legacy in America's relations with friends and foes alike.

Most urgent is the intractable war against Iran, which Mr. Trump acknowledged on Wednesday contributed to his party losing both chambers of Congress. He insisted, though, that he had no regrets about attacking the Islamic Republic, saying it was essential to stop Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon — an ambition Iran says it has never pursued.

The midterm outcome reflected voter backlash after eight months of conflict that have pushed US gasoline prices higher and driven his approval ratings down.

Democrats had accused Republicans of ceding Congress's war-making powers, which under the US Constitution include the authority to declare war and control federal spending, and of giving Mr. Trump a free hand internationally — not only against Iran, but also through his approach to Russia's war in Ukraine, his tariff campaign, his capture of Venezuela's president, and deadly boat strikes off Latin America.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Wednesday that his party's mandate is to put a check on “Trump's chaos at home and abroad” and end the Iran war.

That is easier said than done, given the extensive leeway that presidents have long possessed in foreign policy and military operations.

“A Democratic Congress has the ability to stop Trump's domestic legislative agenda, but it doesn't have much ability to stop a president from exercising his powers as commander-in-chief,” said William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council.

Democrats' principal tools could include investigations — backed by the subpoena power that comes with committee chairmanships — confirmation hearings for Mr. Trump's nominees, and funding authority to curb his foreign operations, but analysts say their leverage will be limited.

While not responding directly to Reuters' questions about the election's implications, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has effectively restored American strength on the global stage … The president will continue to work with anyone to put America first and improve the livelihoods of families across the country, and his foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics.”

Facing Lame-Duck Status

Presidents entering their lame-duck phase — barred from running again and seeing their influence wane at home — have often focused on global affairs, and many analysts expect something similar from Mr. Trump.

But some experts see the risk of Mr. Trump's impulsiveness leading to further instability in the Middle East or sparking conflict elsewhere, possibly targeting Cuba, the Communist-ruled island he has placed under an oil blockade and repeatedly threatened.

“If triggered and cornered,” said Laura Blumenfeld, a foreign policy analyst at Johns Hopkins University, “Trump may elect to flex his presidential powers through unilateral use of force abroad.”

On Iran, Mr. Trump faces a choice among launching a new round of airstrikes, seeking a negotiated exit, or maintaining the status quo — a tense stalemate that keeps global energy prices high and Gulf neighbors on edge.

While Iranian leaders have gloated over what they view as Mr. Trump's humiliation at home, people in Washington familiar with the deliberations say he could still take military action. One source said Mr. Trump had nothing to lose politically now.

Sina Toossi, an Iran specialist at the Center for International Policy in Washington, offered a caution: “Escalation offers no clear path to victory and risks compounding the very economic grievances that drove voters to punish Republicans.”

Any return to major hostilities could also stir further dissent within Mr. Trump's MAGA movement, where a growing number of followers are upset that he broke his 2024 campaign promise to avoid foreign interventions.

Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from Mr. Trump's Iran policy on Wednesday, questioning whether it was worth the cost and blaming it for the Republicans' electoral wipeout.

Democrats Target Ukraine, Israel Policies

Taking control of Congress in January, Democrats will also seek to revive support for Ukraine, which has faced pressure from Mr. Trump as it fights a 4-1/2-year-old Russian invasion.

Democrats hope to draw more Republicans into efforts to approve new aid to Ukraine and build a majority capable of withstanding a veto by Mr. Trump, who has halted direct assistance — a high bar, since overriding a presidential veto requires the backing of two-thirds of both the House and the Senate.

Mr. Trump's lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel exports prompted criticism — including from some Republicans — for reinforcing the impression that he is increasingly siding with Moscow.

At the same time, Democrats want to use their newfound power to begin repairing relations with European allies as well as Canada, though analysts say lawmakers alone will not be able to regain the trust of governments rattled by Mr. Trump's tariffs and pressure tactics.

Mr. Trump is also expected to face a Congress less supportive of Israel than ever before, while some Republicans are questioning their party's traditional backing for Washington's closest Middle East ally.

Many winning Democratic candidates were progressives who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran, and they plan to push for an end to billions of dollars in annual assistance.

Mr. Trump himself announced on Election Day that such aid would be stopped at the end of the year, though it was not clear he has the legal authority to do so.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's embrace of Mr. Trump and the Republican Party, and a wave of settler violence in the occupied West Bank had already eroded decades of bipartisan support.

Even so, Mr. Trump's veto power could limit the Democrats' ability to force major policy changes.

In the end, most analysts see Mr. Trump's foreign policy for the remainder of his second term as driven by his vision of his place in history — one that so far has rested heavily on the exercise of military power abroad.

“He's concerned about his legacy of having left an imprint on the world, not necessarily a positive imprint,” Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said on a webcast hosted by the Washington-based think tank.

This report was originally published by Reuters via BusinessWorld: Midterms upended Congress but Trump still commands foreign policy