American ranchers are grappling with the smallest cattle herd in 75 years just as the Trump administration rolls out a plan intended to lower beef prices and rebuild the national herd.

President Donald Trump said Friday that higher tariffs on beef imports will be waived for 90 days. Under the plan, 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef would be allowed into the U.S. market and sold 25% below current market value. The move takes aim at a grocery staple that has grown increasingly expensive: a pound of USDA Choice beef cost an average of $10.49 in August. That price pressure has built on the supply side of the ledger: when the national herd contracts, fewer cattle move through feedlots and to slaughter, tightening the beef that reaches grocery cases and lifting prices at the meat counter.

"This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again," Trump posted on Truth Social.

The policy arrives against a backdrop of shrinking domestic supply. According to the USDA, the United States entered 2026 with 86.2 million cattle and calves, the smallest herd since the 1950s and down from about 94.7 million in 2019. In cattle economics, that kind of contraction works against any quick fix: ranchers who want to rebuild must first hold back heifers — young females — for breeding rather than sending them to slaughter, which tightens the supply of beef-producing animals even further before any recovery takes hold.

Industry groups push back

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, came out against the announcement, saying he was "disappointed" in the plan.

"While America's cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd," Woodall said in a statement.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall warned that Trump's plan would translate to a 60% increase in imports over the next 90 days.

"We appreciate the president's goal of reducing grocery costs, but short-term measures could have long-term negative effects for consumers and for ranchers who are making decisions on whether to retain or expand their herd," Duvall said in a statement. "Growing dependence on foreign-grown food could ultimately lead to even higher grocery costs and reliance on other nations for our food security. We urge the president to strongly reconsider his plan."

Regional pressures compound the shortage

Ranchers, for their part, point to a longer list of pressures driving the cattle shortage, and those pressures look very different from one region to the next.

In the Midwest, drought is the biggest issue, according to Travis Maddock, a rancher in North Dakota.

"There's an appetite for expansion, but we are in a drought," Maddock said. "Some of my fellow producers that I've spoken with, they're going to hold off a year."

Ranchers in the Southeast are confronting the opposite problem. Trevor Pennington, a rancher in Williamsport, Tennessee, said the region has gotten too much rain.

"Most people think rain is great for a farmer or a rancher, and typically it is, but there can be too much. It keeps us out of the fields from cutting hay," Pennington said. "Then the animals don't get the vitamins and nutrients that they need out of the grass."

In Middle Tennessee, Pennington said, the agricultural industry is also battling fast urban development, and many farmers and ranchers end up selling their land to make a profit.

"The next generation doesn't want to take on that workload," Pennington said. "At the end of the day, if a farmer wants to leave something to his family, the best case for him is probably to sell his land and leave the money to his family."

Any recovery will be slow, Pennington noted: it takes about two years to produce a cow for slaughter to become beef, meaning rebuilding America's cattle herd could easily take a decade. That mismatch in timelines sits at the heart of the industry's objections: the import plan runs on a 90-day clock, while herd rebuilding unfolds over years, and the choices ranchers make in the meantime — holding off for a year, as Maddock's neighbors plan, or selling out, as Pennington describes — will shape the domestic beef supply long after the waiver expires.

Source: Fox Business