President Donald Trump "gambled everything" on his approach to Iran, and it is a wager he continues to lose, according to a new analysis by veteran Washington reporter Simon Marks published Sunday in The i Paper.

Marks reported that Trump once again "backed down at the last minute" from threats to launch massive strikes against Iran if a peace deal was not reached — this time retreating just days after making the threats. Trump reiterated his claim that a new deal is imminent, though many observers increasingly doubt such assertions given how frequently he has made them without result.

Marks noted that Trump has appeared to relish his capacity to move markets through his statements on the Iran conflict. However, this latest declaration is "unlikely to elicit more than a collective shrug by oil traders, let alone any drop in prices for struggling Americans."

"Traders realized weeks ago that the President's declarations are not worth the space on Truth Social that they are afforded," Marks observed.

According to Marks, reports indicate that Trump's latest reversal — his latest "TACO" — resulted from being pressured into diplomacy by another country, a dynamic he argued underscores the president's weakened position.

"In fact, there is no indication that any breakthrough is at hand, or that a deal could emerge 'rapidly,' as the President suggested," Marks continued. "Instead, in a statement issued in Riyadh, the government of Saudi Arabia revealed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had strong-armed the President earlier on Saturday. In what is reported to have been an unusually candid call with Trump, the Crown Prince, known as MBS, 'stressed the need for the predominance of the language of dialogue to reduce escalation' — diplomatic-speak for 'we told the President to knock it off.'" The Saudi Press Agency issued the statement from Riyadh.

The intervention reflects the strategic leverage Saudi Arabia holds as one of the world's largest oil exporters and a key security partner whose territory and energy infrastructure sit within range of Iranian retaliation. Saudi Aramco facilities were struck by missiles in 2019 in an attack widely attributed to Iran, temporarily disrupting roughly five percent of global oil supply.

"Saudi Arabia's message to Washington is becoming increasingly clear," Middle East security expert and analyst Danny Citrinowicz wrote in a post on X, highlighted by Marks. "If the United States launches major strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will likely bear the immediate consequences."

Marks argued that the decision to pursue conflict with Iran has produced "only misery" for Trump, engulfing his presidency and driving down his approval ratings. A recent CNN poll found that just 28 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the conflict, while only 21 percent approve of his handling of the resulting gas price spikes.

"It has been 17 months since Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, accusing him of lacking the ability to win his country's war with Russia," Marks concluded. "This weekend, Saudi Arabia's leader delivered exactly the same message to Trump about Iran, with the added potency of it being true."