Bond traders returned to the market after the Veterans Day holiday, with U.S. Treasury yields rising across the curve. The U.S. fixed-income market is traditionally closed for the Veterans Day holiday while equity trading continues, leaving rates markets to absorb the intervening developments in this session. The 10-year yield moved back above 5%, while the largest increases were recorded at the shorter end of the curve. Interest rates remain a central focus as traders assess the next set of economic releases.

Nvidia was another major focus in early trading. The shares fell about 7.5% to $160.64, creating a more difficult backdrop for technology stocks alongside higher yields and weakness in a leading artificial-intelligence company. Because Nvidia ranks among the largest constituents of major U.S. equity indexes, its share-price swings can register at the index level rather than only within the technology sector.

A morning technical video examines EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, including the directional bias, risk-defining levels and targets that could give buyers or sellers greater control.

Nvidia tests a key support zone

Reuters reported that Nvidia’s board was meeting to consider CEO Jensen Huang’s future amid investigations and reports concerning his personal relationships. The reports raise uncertainty over leadership and continuity at a company central to the artificial-intelligence trade. They concern a possible leadership change but do not establish that Huang has been removed.

Nvidia was trading at $160.64, below the key swing area between $164.07 and $168.80. An opening near that level would place the shares below the entire support zone and give sellers the stronger technical position.

The next question is whether the price can remain below the broken floor once opening volatility subsides. A move back above $164.07 would be the first step toward repairing the decline. Buyers would then need to move through $168.80 to reclaim the full area. Until that happens, the former floor becomes overhead resistance, and continued trading below it would leave the technical picture more bearish.

Short-term Treasury yields lead the move higher

The morning snapshot showed the following Treasury yields:

• 2-year yield: 4.7652%, up 3.82 basis points.
• 5-year yield: 4.8426%, up 3.76 basis points.
• 10-year yield: 5.0080%, up 1.90 basis points.
• 30-year yield: 5.3557%, up 0.67 basis point.

The 10-year yield’s return above 5% provides the most visible headline, but the broader message is that borrowing costs remain elevated. Higher yields can make investors more selective about the prices they are willing to pay for future earnings, adding another consideration for technology stocks already facing Nvidia’s decline. The 10-year also serves as a reference rate for mortgages and a wide range of corporate borrowing, which is why its level draws attention well beyond trading desks. Shorter-dated yields, which led the day’s increases, are generally the most sensitive to shifts in expectations for central-bank policy, making the front end a useful gauge of how those expectations are evolving.

Dollar trades in mixed fashion

The U.S. dollar was higher against the Australian dollar, pound, New Zealand dollar and euro, but lower against the Swiss franc, yen and Canadian dollar. AUDUSD was the weakest currency pair against the dollar in the supplied snapshot, falling 0.31%. USDCHF was down 0.11%, indicating that the Swiss franc was the strongest of the currencies shown.

The individual moves were:

• EURUSD: 1.1086, down 0.03%.
• GBPUSD: 1.3267, down 0.10%.
• AUDUSD: 0.6825, down 0.31%.
• NZDUSD: 0.5560, down 0.04%.
• USDJPY: 159.64, down 0.08%.
• USDCHF: 0.8322, down 0.11%.
• USDCAD: 1.4244, down 0.05%.

Higher U.S. yields have not produced a uniform dollar advance, leaving the individual currency charts important. Traders are watching where buyers can defend support and where sellers can contain rallies. With U.S. jobless claims and existing home sales scheduled later in the session, the mixed dollar tape leaves the calendar as the next potential test for direction.

UK activity data improve, but sterling slips

UK data were generally stronger than expected on the monthly activity measures. GDP rose 0.2%, compared with expectations for no growth. Industrial production increased 0.3%, against a forecast decline of 0.4%, while manufacturing production rose 0.7%, compared with expectations for a 0.5% fall.

Construction output also exceeded expectations, increasing 0.8% against a flat forecast. Quarterly GDP growth matched the 0.7% estimate, compared with 0.5% previously.

Trade data were less encouraging. The goods deficit widened to £22.3 billion, compared with expectations of £19.2 billion and a previous reading of £19.6 billion.

Despite the stronger monthly activity readings, GBPUSD was modestly lower. The data had not been sufficient to give buyers sustained control in the morning snapshot. In currency markets, data tend to matter through the policy expectations they shape rather than on headline strength alone, which is one reason stronger figures do not automatically translate into a firmer exchange rate.

Most currency pairs remain below their average ranges

Using a separate 22-day average-range benchmark, representing about one month of trading, the currency pairs had covered the following portions of their typical ranges:

• EURUSD: 36 pips versus a 69-pip average, or 52% completed.
• GBPUSD: 32 pips versus a 78-pip average, or 41% completed.
• USDJPY: 47 pips versus a 90-pip average, or 52% completed.
• USDCHF: 25 pips versus a 60-pip average, or 42% completed.
• USDCAD: 29 pips versus a 67-pip average, or 43% completed.
• AUDUSD: 40 pips versus a 54-pip average, or 74% completed.
• NZDUSD: 26 pips versus a 51-pip average, or 51% completed.

GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD had completed the smallest portions of their normal month-long average ranges. AUDUSD had traveled the furthest relative to its average.

Most pairs still had room to extend if new data or a technical break prompted further activity. The average is a reference point, however, and does not require the market to travel a particular distance.

European stocks mostly higher

European equities had a generally firmer tone in the North American morning snapshot:

• Germany’s DAX: up 0.63%.
• France’s CAC 40: up 0.61%.
• UK’s FTSE 100: up 0.24%.
• Spain’s IBEX 35: up 0.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50: up 0.04%.
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: down 0.19%.

Commodities and Bitcoin decline

Crude oil traded at $85.87, down $0.66, or 0.76%, after moving between $85.20 and $87.54. Gold traded near $3,935.83, down $51.87, or 1.30%. Silver fell 1.46% to about $50.88, while copper declined 1.40% to $6.2020.

Bitcoin traded near $72,894, down $1,021, or 1.38%.

Gold’s decline occurred alongside higher Treasury yields. Weakness also extended across industrial metals, oil and Bitcoin as North American market participation increased.

North American economic calendar

The scheduled releases were:

• 8:30 AM ET — Initial jobless claims. Forecast: 195K; previous: 189K.
• 8:30 AM ET — Continuing jobless claims. Forecast: 1.710 million; previous: 1.718 million.
• 10:00 AM ET — Existing home sales. Forecast: 3.85 million annualized; previous: 3.99 million.

Initial jobless claims provide the next check on labor-market conditions. A lower reading would indicate that layoffs remain limited, while a higher reading would point toward some softening. Existing home sales offer another measure of housing activity against a backdrop of elevated borrowing costs.

The technical video examines EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, including the moving averages and swing areas used to define bias, risk and targets.

Nvidia provides an example of why a swing area matters. A floor marks a zone where buyers previously appeared. If the price opens below that level, buyers must demonstrate that they can reclaim it. The news headline can create the initial move, while price action around the technical level helps define the trade and limit risk.

Source: ForexLive