Tesla (TSLA) shares climbed 5% on Friday after the company reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The gain came despite a shortfall in the energy business, and as CNBC host Jim Cramer laid out a bullish case for the stock that rests on a different asset entirely: SpaceX.

Q3 Deliveries Top Estimates

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating the company-compiled consensus of 461,974 by roughly 5%. Delivery figures are Tesla's earliest quarterly read on demand, published ahead of full financial results, which makes them among the company's most closely watched metrics. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries came in strong as well, with 478,237 units topping both Tesla's own consensus and FactSet's estimate of 435,000.

Even so, total volume slipped about 2% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The beat against estimates, however, was enough to lift the stock.

Energy Storage Falls Short

Not everything in the report was positive. Tesla's energy business missed expectations, with energy storage deployments reaching 13.7 GWh in the quarter — a shortfall of around 14% against the consensus figure of 15.9 GWh. Deployments, measured in gigawatt-hours, are tracked separately from vehicle volumes and serve as the primary gauge of Tesla's energy segment, and the miss represents a wider percentage gap than the delivery beat.

What Analysts Are Watching

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch said the delivery beat could support better operating cash flow and gross margins. He also flagged Full Self-Driving as a potential driver of future demand. William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer pointed to the same delivery upside while noting the weaker energy storage growth.

Tesla produced 464,391 vehicles during the quarter, about 22,000 fewer than it delivered, suggesting the company drew down inventory. That drawdown could be a positive sign for cash flow. Oppenheimer said it will be watching capital spending and balance sheet pressure closely.

Because the delivery report contains unit volumes but no pricing or profitability data, the upcoming financial report is where the beat's impact on revenue and margins will first become visible. Tesla reports third-quarter financial results on Oct. 21. Investors will be looking for updates on cash flow and the production timing of the Optimus robot.

Cramer's Take Has Nothing to Do With Deliveries

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's "Mad Money," offered a different reason to like Tesla stock. Speaking on CNBC, he said the real growth catalyst is not the car business, but SpaceX.

Tesla converted its $2 billion xAI investment into a direct minority stake in SpaceX earlier this year, giving Tesla shareholders financial exposure to SpaceX's operations. Cramer highlighted the company's expanding compute capacity, which it rents out to customers, and said SpaceX could see a sharp jump in earnings down the road. In his view, that would boost Tesla's balance sheet and share price over time.

Cramer also addressed the delivery beat itself. He said rising gas prices are pushing more drivers toward electric vehicles, as climbing fuel costs make EVs look like a cheaper option for budget-conscious buyers. In his assessment, this shift helped push Tesla's delivery numbers above estimates.

Stock Still Down for the Year

Tesla stock remains down more than 15% since the start of 2026, even after Friday's gain. Wall Street currently rates the stock Overweight, a rating that signals analysts expect shares to outperform the broader market.

Source: CoinCentral