Shares of Target Corporation (TGT) rose about 2% on Wednesday after HSBC analyst Joe Thomas upgraded the retail giant to Buy from Hold and raised his price target on the stock to $190 from $125. The sharp increase in the target signals growing confidence that the company's turnaround under relatively new leadership is taking hold.

Target shares responded to the call almost immediately, trading near $157 after the news. The move extends what has already been a strong run for the Minneapolis-based retailer: shares are up 63% in 2026 alone, and the stock has climbed 51% since Michael Fiddelke stepped into the chief executive role in February.

Notably, this week's rally was not driven by a big product launch or a flashy advertising campaign. It came down to a single analyst's assessment that the retailer has finally turned a corner — making HSBC one of the more bullish voices covering the company. For readers parsing the call, an upgrade to Buy signals an analyst expects shares to outperform, while the price target represents that analyst's estimate of the stock's likely value over the coming year.

Foot Traffic, Not Price Hikes

At the heart of Thomas's upgrade is a close reading of Target's most recent quarterly results. Second-quarter comparable sales rose 3.8%, and store-originated sales climbed 2.7%. Earnings per share came in roughly 5% ahead of what Wall Street expected.

Comparable — a standard retail metric that measures growth at existing locations, stripping out the effect of new store openings — is closely watched as a gauge of underlying demand. For the HSBC analyst, however, the composition of that growth matters more than the headline numbers. He emphasized that the gains were powered by foot traffic rather than by higher prices or larger basket sizes. That distinction suggests customers are genuinely walking back into Target stores, rather than the company simply charging more for the same items.

"This indicates to us that Target is rebuilding customer traffic and that its store base is not being materially cannibalized," Thomas wrote in his note.

Price Cuts and a Cool Initial Reaction

The upgrade landed just one day after Target announced price reductions on nearly 2,000 items across home, apparel, and accessories, a move the company framed as an effort to help families ahead of the holiday shopping season. The timing underscores the stakes: the weeks leading into the holidays are traditionally the busiest stretch of the U.S. retail calendar, when chains compete hardest for seasonal shoppers.

The market's first response to that announcement was unenthusiastic. Target stock closed down 1.3% on Tuesday, even as the S&P 500 barely budged. Thomas did not comment directly on the new price cuts in his note, but they build on more than 10,000 price reductions the retailer has already made over the past year — a continuation of an aggressive pricing strategy rather than a change in direction.

The Broader Turnaround Story

Fiddelke launched his revamped turnaround plan back in March. The goals are straightforward: refresh the product lineup, cut prices where it makes sense, and redesign store layouts. Investors have so far bought into the strategy — the stock has risen 32% since the plan was unveiled.

Momentum carried into the second half of the year as well. When Target reported earnings on August 19, the company raised its full-year guidance for the second time in 2026, now expecting fiscal 2026 earnings between $8.25 and $9.25 per share, up from a prior range of $7.50 to $8.50. Guidance raises carry weight because they reflect management's own read on the business rather than an outside estimate.

Not every part of the business is firing yet. Apparel and home categories continue to lag behind other segments. Even so, Thomas pointed to early progress in children's clothing and home updates, two areas Target has specifically targeted for a refresh.

Wall Street Is More Cautious Than HSBC

The wider analyst community remains more measured than HSBC. According to FactSet data covering 43 analysts, the average rating on Target is Hold, with just 28% of those analysts rating the stock a Buy. The consensus price target stands at $165.96, implying roughly 7% upside from current levels — a far more modest call than HSBC's $190, which now ranks among the most bullish on the retailer.

Target's next earnings report will show whether the foot-traffic trend underpinning Thomas's thesis can carry through the critical holiday season. Between now and then, the key markers are whether store visits hold up through the holiday rush and whether the lagging apparel and home categories begin closing the gap with the rest of the portfolio.