Technology shares sold off on Wednesday, and by Thursday sellers had taken back control. That is the backdrop heading into the final North American session of the week: U.S. stock futures are modestly lower after yesterday's sharp declines in technology shares, Treasury yields are recovering part of their steep fall, and Middle East headlines continue to keep the oil market on edge.

The dollar, however, is not moving in one direction against everything. It is higher against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar, but marginally lower against the Canadian and New Zealand dollars. With U.S. business surveys and consumer sentiment still ahead, the data have another opportunity to give traders the next shove.

The morning technical review examined the three major currency pairs - EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would hand either buyers or sellers more control.

Wednesday's selloff: technology takes the hit

The near-unchanged Dow did not tell the story beneath the surface. Part of the divergence comes down to index construction: the Dow is price-weighted, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq weigh companies by market capitalization, so losses concentrated in the largest technology names carry far more influence over those benchmarks. Selling was concentrated in technology and semiconductor shares, and the Nasdaq indices suffered the largest losses. The closing numbers were:

• Dow Industrial Average: up 11.98 points, or 0.02%, at 52,873.28
• S&P 500: down 93.74 points, or 1.21%, at 7,663.43
• Nasdaq Composite: down 694.00 points, or 2.60%, at 26,008.86
• Nasdaq 100: down 863.83 points, or 2.90%, at 28,958.69
• Russell 2000: up 3.01 points, or 0.11%, at 2,784.03

Investors continued to question whether returns from the AI buildout would justify the spending involved. Semiconductor weakness added to the pressure - chipmakers supply the hardware at the heart of that buildout, so their shares often act as a barometer of sentiment on AI spending - and market breadth was negative: on the Nasdaq, 1,734 stocks declined versus 1,471 advancing. The damage extended beyond just a few heavily weighted names.

Apple was the exception among the Magnificent Seven, the cluster of mega-cap U.S. technology stocks that carries outsized weight in the major benchmarks, closing higher while the other six declined. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in Treasury yields failed to provide the support growth stocks would normally welcome. That combination shows where the market's attention was focused: earnings expectations, investment costs and whether future profits can justify current valuations.

For buyers, a lower price is only a starting point. What matters next is whether prices can recover broken technical levels and stay above them. Until that happens, a bounce can still be a correction within a move controlled by sellers. For more background, see Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble.

Futures snapshot

U.S. equity futures point modestly lower:

• Dow futures: down 31.4 points
• S&P 500 futures: down 17 points
• Nasdaq 100 futures: down 7.50 points

Those are much smaller moves than yesterday's cash-market declines, but buyers have yet to show much of a rebound.

The dollar is mixed, with the Swiss franc under pressure

The dollar's largest gain is against the Swiss franc, with USDCHF up 0.46% near 0.8242. The greenback is also higher against sterling and the euro, with GBPUSD down 0.22% near 1.3370 and EURUSD down 0.20% near 1.1192. Against the yen, the dollar is modestly higher, with USDJPY up 0.08% near 156.89, while AUDUSD is down 0.06% near 0.7015.

The exceptions are the Canadian and New Zealand dollars. USDCAD is down 0.05% near 1.4001, while NZDUSD is up 0.02% near 0.5683. The changes are small, but they reinforce the point that this is a mixed dollar market.

Currency ranges: room to roam in several pairs

Measured against 22-day average ranges using the session highs and lows, EURUSD has traded from 1.1185 to 1.1226, a 41-pip range that is about 63% of its 65-pip average. GBPUSD has traded from 1.3370 to 1.3407, a 37-pip range covering about 52% of its 71-pip average. Both still have room to extend if the North American data provide a catalyst.

USDJPY has already done more traveling. Its range from 156.08 to 157.15 covers 107 pips, about 111% of its 96-pip average. That does not prevent another extension, but it means the pair has already exceeded a normal day's range. USDCHF has also covered nearly a full average range, trading from 0.8193 to 0.8243 - 50 pips, or roughly 96% of its 52-pip average.

The quieter pairs have more unused range. USDCAD has traded from 1.3998 to 1.4021, covering23 pips, about 35% of its 66-pip average. AUDUSD's 0.7005 to 0.7024 range is 19 pips, roughly 41% of its 46-pip average, and NZDUSD has moved from 0.5680 to 0.5699, also 19 pips, about 46% of its 41-pip average.

USDCAD has the most room relative to its normal range, with Canadian retail sales still ahead. An average range is context, however, not a requirement that the market travel the remaining distance.

Treasury yields rebound after yesterday's plunge

Treasury yields are moving higher this morning. Yields move inversely to bond prices, so the rise represents a partial retracement of the prior session's rally rather than a full reversal. The 2-year yield is at 4.6924%, up 5.74 basis points; the 5-year is at 4.8210%, up 5.30 basis points; the 10-year is back near the 5% level at 4.9966%, up 4.36 basis points; and the 30-year is at 5.3092%, up 2.22 basis points. The move follows yesterday's decline of roughly 15-19 basis points across those maturities.

The question today is whether the data support that move lower in yields or encourage more of a retracement higher. The growth readings will matter, but so will the inflation details.

Middle East risks keep oil in focus

Overnight headlines offered little comfort for traders looking for a quick resolution to the Iran conflict. According to a Financial Times report, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said the U.S. was prepared for a prolonged standoff with Iran and acknowledged that the stalemate could persist a year from now.

Separately, Fox News reported that Iran's IRGC threatened to target U.S. bases if commercial ships continued transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The strait matters to oil traders because it is one of the world's key chokepoints for seaborne crude shipments, which is why threats to commercial traffic feed directly into the supply-risk premium. A Sabereen report also described a missile launch by Yemeni armed forces toward Saudi interests, which remains an attributed report.

Against that backdrop, December WTI - the U.S. crude benchmark - reached a fresh session high of $101.19. The market keeps looking for a diplomatic breakthrough. In the meantime, threats to shipping and regional energy infrastructure keep supply risks in the price, and higher oil complicates the inflation outlook just as investors are questioning parts of the growth story.

Gold tests $4,000, while copper gives sellers a technical opening

Gold fell back below the $4,000 level, reaching $3,986.85, before bouncing (see post here). The bounce shows that buyers responded below the round number. What matters next is whether they can sustain a recovery above $4,000. A brief move back above, followed by another failure, would leave the rebound vulnerable; getting above and staying above would give buyers a better foothold.

Copper has also reached an important decision point. As a metal used across construction and manufacturing, it is often read as a gauge of industrial demand, so the battle around these technical levels draws attention well beyond commodity desks. The price fell below its 100-hour moving average at $6.449, a level traders can now lean against. Staying below is more bearish and gives sellers short-term control; if they can maintain the break, the 200-hour moving average at $6.226 becomes the next downside target. Conversely, a move back above $6.449 - and the ability to stay above - weaken the sellers' case. Sellers have made a play; now they need to hold the break.

European data point to uneven growth

The European flash PMI readings were mixed, but the broader euro-area results fell short of expectations. France was the weak spot: manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 versus 50.5 expected, while services dropped to 48.4 versus 50.7 expected, both below the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion.

Germany's manufacturing sector held up better, at 54.2 versus 53.5 expected, but services missed at 51.7 versus 52.5 expected. For the euro area overall, manufacturing came in at 52.4 versus 52.7 expected, while services registered 51.7 versus 52.6 expected - still indicating expansion, but at a slower pace than anticipated.

European equities were also lower: Germany's DAX down 0.75%, France's CAC 40 down 0.70%, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 down 0.50%, Spain's IBEX down 0.20% and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.42%.

North American calendar: growth and inflation expectations

At 8:30 AM ET, Canadian retail sales are expected to rise 1.3%, following a 0.7% decline. Sales excluding autos are expected to increase 1.1%, also after a 0.7% decline. With USDCAD's range still relatively narrow, the report could provide a catalyst for an extension.

At 9:45 AM ET, the U.S. flash PMIs will provide an early look at October business conditions. Flash readings are preliminary estimates published ahead of the final figures, which is why markets treat them as a first read on the month. Manufacturing is expected at 55.4 versus 55.9 previously, while services are expected at 57.9 versus 58.8. Both forecasts remain comfortably above 50. Traders will also be watching what businesses say about prices, hiring and new orders.

At 10:00 AM ET, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is expected to remain at 46.3. The previous one-year inflation expectations reading stood at 4.7%, and with oil elevated, the inflation expectations details deserve attention alongside the headline sentiment number.

EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: define the risk before the next move

EURUSD is trading closer to the bottom of its overnight range, with 1.1185 the session low and 1.1226 the high. Sellers have the intraday directional advantage, but a break below the low would need follow-through. A failed break would give buyers an opening to push back into the range.

USDJPY has already exceeded its average daily range, with a 156.08 low and a 157.15 high framing the session so far. After that amount of movement, the review favors letting technical levels define the risk - chasing a move without a nearby level to lean against makes managing that risk more difficult.

GBPUSD is trading at the bottom of its displayed range near 1.3370, with 1.3407 the session high. Sellers are pressing, and the pair still has room relative to its average range. Holding below the low would support an extension; failure to stay below would take some of the immediate pressure off.

The full video walkthrough works through the technical tools applied to the price action for each pair, with the goal of defining who has control, what would change that control and where the next targets lie.