Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token with a target of $0.50 for the end of 2026 and $10 for the end of 2030, according to The Block, which reviewed the bank’s client research note. The bank also outlined annual milestones intended to provide nearer checkpoints for assessing the longer-term forecast.

Reaching the first target would require ARB to rise about 265% from approximately $0.137. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital-assets research, bases the broader case on the expansion of tokenized assets. The bank estimates that assets tokenized on public blockchains could increase from roughly $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. Standard Chartered made that estimate itself, and the eventual total will depend on which asset categories are included.

Tokenization thesis has an early example in Robinhood Chain

Robinhood Chain, which uses Arbitrum technology, provides an early example supporting the bank’s thesis. Standard Chartered estimates that the chain could generate about $5 million in Arbitrum Expansion Program fees during September at its prevailing run rate. The research note also estimated Robinhood Chain’s average daily fee revenue at $2.8 million during the first two weeks of the month and said Arbitrum’s monthly revenue had increased to more than five times its pre-launch level.

The $2.8 million daily figure cannot simply be multiplied by 10%. Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, the contribution is calculated from protocol net revenue rather than from all fees generated by a chain.

The figures represent ecosystem revenue, not income paid directly to ARB holders. Chains built outside Arbitrum One and Nova contribute 10% of protocol net revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem under the program. As discussed in an analysis of Robinhood Chain’s transaction growth, those funds go to the DAO treasury and Developer Guild rather than automatically financing ARB buybacks or distributions.

That distinction is central to the valuation case. Arbitrum can generate more revenue when a chain using its technology succeeds, but that revenue does not automatically create additional demand for ARB. A lasting connection between ecosystem income and the token would require governance action.

ARB returns to the midpoint of its September rally

ARB traded near $0.137 at 12:02 UTC on September 15, 2026, according to the Bitstamp ARB/USD daily chart on TradingView. The price was almost exactly at the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $0.1374, measured from the late-June low of about $0.0697 to the early-September high near $0.205.

A Fibonacci retracement is a reference level drawn from a previous price swing. Traders use such levels to identify areas where a pullback might pause or where an earlier move could resume. It is a guide to potential market interest, not a prediction.

ARB first moved above $0.137 during the early-September rally before reaching approximately $0.205. Its return to the midpoint is therefore the first significant test of whether the advance established lasting support. An intraday reaction alone is not enough to confirm the retest; the daily closing price provides a more useful signal.

Nova highlights the risks facing Arbitrum’s expansion model

Robinhood Chain represents a positive example for Arbitrum’s expansion strategy, while Nova illustrates how quickly a network can lose economic relevance. Nova’s total value locked fell from roughly $20.4 million to about $359,000, and daily decentralized-exchange volume dropped below $60 before the network moved to a lower-footprint operating model.

The Nova migration does not eliminate the potential of dedicated chains. It does, however, clarify what should be measured: not simply how many chains launch, but whether those networks continue attracting users and generating fees after initial incentives or promotional periods end.

Assumptions behind the $10 target

Standard Chartered’s forecast relies on assumptions about market growth, institutional adoption and ARB’s token economics. Each of those factors could develop differently from the bank’s projections. Tokenization could expand more slowly than forecast, financial firms could select competing blockchain networks, new chains could fail to generate durable revenue, or ecosystem revenue could remain disconnected from demand for ARB.

The more immediate checkpoint is the bank’s $0.50 target for the end of 2026, rather than the $10 target for 2030. If ARB approaches $0.50 while fees associated with Robinhood Chain remain elevated, price performance and business activity would be developing in parallel. A rally without durable revenue would indicate that market activity was moving ahead of adoption, while continued fee growth without stronger ARB demand would show that the token’s value-accrual issue remains unresolved.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Standard Chartered’s ARB forecasts are analyst projections, not guarantees of future performance.