NewsCryptoStablecoin Drain and ETF Outflows Leave Bitcoin 'Running on Empty,' Glassnode Says

Stablecoin Drain and ETF Outflows Leave Bitcoin 'Running on Empty,' Glassnode Says

Author: Decrypt·

Key Takeaways

  • •Total stablecoin supply fell $14.2 billion over the 30 days through Nov. 9, the fastest contraction since June 2022, leaving the aggregate supply just below $280 billion, according to Glassnode.
  • •Stablecoin supply serves as a proxy for capital parked in crypto, so the shrinkage indicates holders are redeeming tokens for dollars and withdrawing funds from the market entirely.
  • •U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.6 billion in net redemptions across 20 trading sessions, and Bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, a common gauge of U.S. demand.
  • •Bitcoin traded near $73,000 on Wednesday after slipping below the roughly $75,600 average cost basis of short-term holders, while CryptoQuant reported more than $3.6 billion in Bitcoin moved to exchanges, potentially for sale at a loss.
  • •Glassnode said the selloff has flushed out leveraged long positions, buy orders now outweigh sell orders, and wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have started accumulating, with $73,000 flagged as key support and the trend shift from August intact as long as Bitcoin stays above its June low.
Stablecoin Drain and ETF Outflows Leave Bitcoin 'Running on Empty,' Glassnode Says

The pool of dollars that fuels cryptocurrency trading is draining at its fastest pace since June 2022, and Bitcoin is showing the strain.

Total stablecoin supply fell by $14.2 billion over the 30 days through Nov. 9, the fastest contraction since June 2022, according to the latest "Week On-chain" report published Wednesday by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The aggregate stablecoin supply now sits just below $280 billion, and the research firm suggested the drain is a big reason Bitcoin is currently "running on empty."

Stablecoins are blockchain tokens typically pegged to the U.S. dollar and function as the cryptocurrency market's cash. Traders park funds in them on exchanges and on-chain before buying other assets, and because most digital-asset trading is settled against these tokens, their aggregate supply is widely watched as a proxy for capital parked in the market. When the stablecoin supply shrinks, it means holders are redeeming tokens for dollars and pulling that money out of crypto entirely — a dynamic Glassnode said leaves "less fuel for a rally." The firm added that a return to supply growth would be the first sign that fresh money is flowing back in.

The stablecoin drain is not the only indication of capital leaving. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — funds that hold Bitcoin directly and give traditional investors brokerage-account exposure to the asset — recorded roughly $1.6 billion in net redemptions over 20 trading sessions, the report found. Bitcoin has also traded at a discount on Coinbase, a pattern commonly used as a gauge of U.S. demand.

Price pressure has compounded those outflows. Bitcoin slipped below the average cost basis of short-term holders — a cohort on-chain analysts typically define as coins moved within roughly the past five months — which sits at about $75,600, leaving most recent buyers underwater, and traded near $73,000 on Wednesday. According to a separate report published Wednesday by CryptoQuant, more than $3.6 billion in Bitcoin was recently moved to exchanges, potentially to be sold at a loss.

Glassnode did point to some silver linings. The slide has flushed out most leveraged long positions near the current price, buy orders outweigh sell orders in the order book, and wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC have started accumulating. The firm flagged $73,000 as key support and said the broader trend change that began in August remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds above its June low.

The contraction comes as stablecoins face growing competition from traditional finance. Global banks including Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Deutsche Bank are backing a $270 million challenge to crypto's dominant stablecoin issuers, while the U.S. Federal Reserve recently unveiled stablecoin rules for issuers covering reserves and capital. Both developments involve the issuers of the tokens that make up the nearly $280 billion supply pool the crypto market trades against.