SpaceX (SPCX) stock closed Friday's session at $146.03, down 2%, extending its weekly loss to more than 10% ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report, due late Tuesday, October 20.

The pullback mirrors a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks this month. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) have slipped below their 50-day moving average but remain well above the August record low of $104.83, and still trade far beneath the mid-June record high of $225.64.

First Profit Expected Since June Listing

Analysts expect earnings of 14 cents per share, though more recent forecasts point to 23 cents. Either figure would mark SpaceX's first quarterly profit since the company's June public listing. In the second quarter, SpaceX posted a loss of 9 cents per share.

FactSet puts consensus revenue at $12.89 billion for the third quarter. That compares with $7.81 billion in Q2 and $4.694 billion in Q1, extending a steep revenue ramp through the year that would leave quarterly sales nearly triple the level of the first quarter. Cash burn is expected to remain heavy at $10.8 billion, reflecting elevated capital spending — a sum equal to more than 80% of the quarter's projected revenue, underscoring how cash-intensive the expansion remains.

Segment Forecasts and AI Deals

The space segment is expected to generate $1.4 billion in revenue, up from $962 million in Q2. Connectivity, which includes the Starlink satellite internet business, is forecast at roughly $4.84 billion, compared with $4.29 billion last quarter.

AI is seen as the biggest swing factor. FactSet expects $6.47 billion in AI revenue as SpaceX wins compute contracts and builds out data centers — a figure equal to roughly half the quarter's projected total revenue. xAI's Grok, the chatbot from Musk's artificial intelligence venture, has not drawn many customers, prompting the company to sell its spare computing capacity instead.

At a Goldman Sachs conference in September, CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX had closed a hosting deal worth $1.11 billion per month starting December 1 — roughly $13 billion a year. William Blair counted the agreement as the fourth compute deal in four months, bringing total annual recurring revenue above $11 billion. Customers include Anthropic and Alphabet (GOOGL), with the Department of Defense also a possibility. Because the hosting agreement only takes effect on December 1, its contribution will not appear in third-quarter results, leaving the fourth quarter as the first window into the contracted run-rate.

In early October, SpaceX said it plans to raise $40 billion to buy AI chips from Nvidia (NVDA). The company is targeting 5 to 10 gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of 2027, up from a 2-gigawatt goal for 2026, and plans to fly its first orbital compute satellites next year.

Starlink news has continued as well. SpaceX purchased additional spectrum for its mobile service this month, and the FCC approved 15,000 more next-generation Starlink satellites.

Starship Plans and Analyst Views

Starship SpaceX's next-generation launch vehicle, is also in focus. Musk is expected to outline plans for flight 15, after flight 14 reached orbit in September. SpaceX may attempt to catch both the booster and the spacecraft, depending on what it learned from flight 14. Musk has trimmed his launch goal, however: speaking at a White House event, he said he now wants 50 to 100 Starship flights next year, down from 356.

Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral raised his price target on SPCX to $275 from $230 and maintained an outperform rating. He said the quarter may be judged more on targets and progress than on the reported numbers, and he sees SpaceX closing 2026 with annualized revenue near $104 billion — a framing that puts updates on the compute-capacity and Starship flight goals in focus alongside the reported figures.

Options traders are pricing in a muted reaction. One analyst said the market implies a 5.3% move, or a range of $140 to $156. JPMorgan has warned that AI stocks may not rebound as quickly as they did in July.

Attention also turns to Tesla (TSLA), where Musk also serves as chief executive. Tesla reports Wednesday, and analysts expect EPS of $0.44 on revenue of $27.8 billion. The back-to-back reports give investors consecutive-day reads on Musk's two companies. Barclays has said SpaceX might announce a deal to acquire Tesla by December, and one prediction market currently assigns a 24% chance to such an announcement by year-end.

Chart Analysis

SPCX is in a pullback after a rally from the August low near $105 to a high near $176 in early October. The stock has broken below the rising trendline that held since August and failed to hold the $150-to-$158 zone, which now acts as resistance.

The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 43, down from overbought levels near 70, showing fading momentum. The MACD has crossed below its signal line, and the histogram is negative at -1.95, a bearish reading. Support sits near $140, with a wider zone between $125 and $133.

What to watch: A close below $140 could open the door to the $125-$133 zone, while a move back above $158 would repair the technical trend.